Nested Sampling: A Critical and Comprehensive Theoretical Guide

The nested sampling (NS) technique has gained widespread attention, particularly in cosmology and astronomy, due to its ability to efficiently explore high-likelihood regions - a feature akin to an implicit likelihood optimization that underlies its success. While the full theoretical derivation of NS is complex and involves several approximations, the central challenge lies in sampling from the likelihood-constrained priors, which is crucial for its performance. This work provides a comprehensive and detailed exposition of NS derivation, clarifying both its theoretical foundations and practical challenges. We provide a thorough description of the NS procedure, emphasizing both its strengths and potential limitations. In doing so, this work seeks to deepen understanding of the method and to foster the development of future enhancements, novel variants, and more efficient implementations across a wide range of scientific applications. Thus, the main contribution of this work is twofold: it serves both as a tutorial for newcomers to the field and as a critical review for experienced practitioners.

Time Series Analysis in Machine Learning

Time series analysis is a fundamental component of machine learning, especially in astrophysics and cosmology where temporal data abound. This chapter provides a pedagogical review of time series analysis techniques from a machine learning perspective. We cover the basic concepts of time series (stationarity, autocorrelation, seasonality), classical statistical models (autoregressive, moving average, ARIMA, exponential smoothing, state-space models), and modern machine learning approaches. In particular, we discuss how traditional statistical methods lay the groundwork, and then explore machine learning methods for time series, including feature-based regression, tree-based ensemble methods, hidden Markov models, Gaussian processes, and deep learning models (recurrent neural networks, convolutional networks, transformers). Throughout, we illustrate with examples drawn from multiple domains (e.g. astronomy, weather forecasting, finance) to emphasize common principles. The goal is to equip readers with both the theoretical understanding and practical context to apply machine learning techniques for time series analysis in their research.