Multi-task learning often combines losses that span several orders of magnitude, causing homoscedastic uncertainty weighting to degrade severely. We propose Bounded Precision-Geometry Scaling (BPGS), a method that maps each task's log-variance through a bounded sigmoid parameterisation anchored to detached batch loss statistics, and decouples network optimisation from uncertainty optimisation. Its normalised task weights are provably invariant to uniform rescaling under non-degenerate loss scales. We evaluate BPGS on synthetic stress tests and three real-world benchmarks: NYUv2 dense prediction, Yeast multi-label classification, and RF1 multi-target regression. Under pure loss rescaling from $\times 1$ to $\times 1000$, its macro score changes from 0.777 to 0.778, whereas Kendall weighting drops from 0.780 to 0.637; $\ell_1$-normalising Kendall's weights does not close the gap. On NYUv2, BPGS records the lowest depth absolute relative error (0.223), depth RMSE (0.790), and total loss (1.891) among all compared methods, including Nash-MTL. Sensitivity studies on batch size and calibration show small variation across the tested ranges, and runtime overhead relative to Kendall is under 1%. BPGS posts the highest Yeast micro-F1 (0.616) and is competitive on RF1, though PCGrad leads RMSE and MAE there. These findings establish BPGS as a scale-robust alternative to homoscedastic uncertainty weighting, notably effective when loss-scale disparities dominate multi-task optimisation.
AI systems deployed outside clean benchmark settings often rely on observations that are incomplete, unstable, costly, or degraded by monitoring failures. This paper studies representation selection under constrained observation: choosing a state representation when raw accuracy is not the only operational criterion. We propose a validation-frontier selector that combines balanced accuracy with penalties for feature cost, overfit gap, and validation-test instability. In a focused public-tabular benchmark using three scikit-learn datasets, five observation regimes, 45 matched task cells, 720 candidate actions, and 405 representation rows, the adaptive selector improves frontier score over full trace features by 0.025801 while reducing mean feature count by 22.733. Balanced-accuracy difference is small and not statistically significant. A broader offline stress test gives mixed results. The supported claim is therefore bounded: adaptive representation selection can improve a constrained-observation robustness-efficiency frontier in matched benchmark settings, but does not universally dominate trace baselines.
Models trained by empirical risk minimization on data containing spurious correlations achieve high average accuracy while failing on subpopulations where the correlation does not hold. Existing methods for identifying the affected samples without group annotations rely on signals from early training, which requires locating the epoch at which to intervene, a hyperparameter typically selected using group-labeled validation data. We show that a usable signal is available after convergence, when loss no longer distinguishes the two populations. Samples consistent with the spurious correlation are classified by a shared rule, while the remaining samples are fit through configurations specific to individual inputs and are correspondingly more fragile. Applying a fixed perturbation to a converged model's inputs flips the predictions of the latter far more often than the former. The resulting procedure requires two forward passes per training sample, no group annotations at any stage, and no early-stopping epoch. Using the detected samples to rebalance training raises worst-group accuracy on Waterbirds from 57.3% to 80.8%, against 85.8% with ground-truth group labels.
While neural networks are typically evaluated by their training and test performance, these metrics do not reveal how robust a learned representation is. Recent studies have shown that solutions occupying larger volumes in parameter space, as quantified by Boltzmann entropy, often exhibit superior generalizability compared to those reached by conventional optimization, a phenomenon known as the high entropy advantage. Here we ask whether this advantage persists beyond generalization. Specifically, we investigate models' robustness, the ability to retain the learned knowledge when the model is subsequently trained to acquire new information. Using grokking in modular arithmetic as a controlled setting, we design a noise injection experiment to evaluate the robustness difference between AdamW-trained transformers and high-entropy model sampled from Wang-Landau Molecular Dynamics with identical saturated performance. By forcing both models to fully remember new data with random labels, we find that AdamW-trained models suffer from catastrophic forgetting, with original task test accuracy dropping from 100% to below 75%, whereas the high-entropy models maintain approximately 95% test accuracy. We term this hidden fragility behind apparent generalization the "grokked illusion." Through singular value decomposition of the neural network weights, we discover that high-entropy neural networks possess significantly higher effective rank in attention and MLP layers both before and after noise injection, indicating richer feature representations can serve as a buffer against catastrophic forgetting. Our findings demonstrate that perfect generalization does not imply equal robustness, offering a new perspective on what makes a trained model robust to interference.
Generalised Bayesian inference (GBI) has emerged as a compelling robust alternative to standard Bayesian inference, mitigating sensitivity to data contamination by replacing the log-likelihood with a robust loss or divergence. However, existing robust GBI frameworks typically provide only qualitative robustness: while they can make posterior inference less sensitive to contamination, they lack an intrinsic mechanism to quantify the contamination proportion or identify anomalous observations. This paper introduces Hölder-Bayes, a GBI framework for joint inference of the model parameter and the contamination proportion. We construct a generalised joint posterior over both model and contamination parameter by applying the Hölder divergence to a scaled model density. Theoretically, we establish global bias-robustness via the uniform boundedness of the posterior influence function, derive a finite-sample excess-risk bound, and prove a Bernstein--von Mises approximation together with interpretable contamination-induced bias bounds under a heavy-contamination regime. We further show that, for the Hölder posterior, temperature calibration admits a direct interpretation as affine volume scaling of the data space. The resulting posterior yields a self-contained probabilistic mechanism for outlier detection: posterior uncertainty in both the model parameter and the contamination proportion is propagated to observation-level Frequency-of-Detection scores, without requiring an external anomaly-score threshold. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that Hölder-Bayes provides robust parameter inference, contamination-level recovery, and uncertainty-aware outlier detection.
Learning with noisy labels is a fundamental problem in training reliable deep neural networks. Robust loss functions provide a direct and effective way to mitigate the adverse effects of label noise. However, most existing robust losses are designed directly at the level of the final multiclass objective, which makes it difficult to systematically characterize and extend their robustness properties. In this paper, we propose a general framework that constructs robust multiclass losses from univariate base functions. By defining mapping operators from base functions to multiclass losses, the robustness of the induced losses can be characterized through simple properties of the base functions. We develop two complementary construction schemes, Target Separation and Binary Reduction, corresponding to inter-class independent and inter-class dependent formulations, respectively. For both schemes, we analyze their symmetry and asymmetry properties and derive corresponding sufficient conditions, which provide theoretical criteria for noise-robust loss design. The proposed framework also provides a new route to constructing symmetric losses, serving as a complement to normalization-based symmetric loss designs. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world noisy-label benchmarks demonstrate that the proposed losses achieve competitive or superior performance under various noise settings.
Matt L. Wiemann, Peter Melchior, Andrew K. Saydjarics.LG
Noise injection is a well-known technique in stochastic optimization. We report its surprising effectiveness with an interleaved (on-off-on-off...) rather than the usual monotonic decay schedule. We present a theoretical analysis of noise injection, which confirms that corruption by impulse noise approximates a Jacobian regularization, whereas Gaussian noise acts as a curvature penalty. This regularization behavior has been invoked to explain why noise injection increases model robustness. But the interleaved nature of our proposed schedule produces superior results even for the optimization objective: mixing phases of noisy data permits the optimizer to escape local minima and increase exploration without the risk of catastrophically forgetting the important features from the clean data. To stabilize this training scheme against the rapid changes of the loss when switching between clean and noisy data, we introduce a gradient-norm stabilization technique that scales noisy updates based on clean gradient magnitudes. We compare this method with other common augmentation methods and find substantial improvements in corruption tolerance and robustness to real-world distribution shifts on CIFAR-100-C, ImageNet-C, and ImageNet-R for ResNet and ViT architectures, with the best results being achieved by stacking our method on top of other augmentations. Through saliency and attention maps we show that the effect of interleaved noise injection stems from penalizing the failure modes encouraged by the inductive bias of the models: impulse noise works against the locality bias of convolutional (ResNet) architectures, and Gaussian noise reduces the tendency of attention-based models to pick up large-scale spurious features. Interleaved noise injection is therefore an effective tool to improve the test performance on clean, noisy, and out-of-distribution data at essentially zero computational cost.
Scientific experiments are often designed to maximize information gain, yet in many applications the primary objective is to support reliable downstream decision-making. Existing decision-aware experimental design and active learning methods typically assume well-specified outcome models and implicitly rely on the stability of the optimal decision under real-world perturbations. In practice, however, experimental outcomes are frequently influenced by hidden or weakly modeled effects, which can substantially alter decision optimality and lead to misleading conclusions. We study sequential adversarially robust decision-aware experimental design, where data acquisition has to take into account information gain against plausible worst-case unexpected effects, modeled here as variation in adversarial variables. Building on Bayesian decision theory, we formalize an adversarially robust optimal decision under this setting and derive a principled Bayesian experimental design criterion. The criterion explicitly targets decision stability rather than nominal optimality. Experiments on synthetic and real-world scientific datasets show that conventional decision-aware design can converge rapidly to high confidence yet fragile decisions, while our robustness-aware approach yields decisions that are significantly more stable and reliable under adversarial variation.
Real-world data distributions evolve over time, inducing temporal distribution shift that can substantially degrade the reliability of deployed machine learning systems. However, the extent to which architectural choices and their associated inductive biases affect temporal robustness remains insufficiently understood. We present a systematic empirical comparison of temporal robustness across three heterogeneous, time-indexed domains encompassing image classification, multi-label text classification, and text regression tasks. Using a unified evaluation framework based on temporal drift matrices, we train models on cumulative historical data and evaluate their performance on both earlier and later time periods, thereby quantifying cross-temporal generalization. Our study spans model families ranging from simple multilayer perceptrons and convolutional networks to recurrent networks and pretrained Transformer-based encoders. Collectively, the results show that architectural inductive biases systematically shape temporal robustness: models whose inductive biases lead them to exploit localized, highly discriminative features attain the highest in-distribution accuracy, yet those features are often the ones that change most over time, so these models degrade fastest, while pretrained encoders that draw on coarser, more stable representations drift more gradually. These observations offer practical guidance for selecting architectures for real-world systems subject to temporal drift.
Time series forecasters that use exogenous covariates are fragile in deployment: when those covariates are noised, temporally misaligned, or missing, strong exogenous-fusion and exogenous-adapted models can degrade far above the endogenous-only floor. We study whether such robustness requires specialized architectures, or whether it can be obtained through a simple training intervention. We propose exogenous dropout, a model-agnostic method that randomly zeros whole exogenous channels during training. Across electricity-price forecasting, reservoir hydrology, and meteorology, exogenous dropout substantially improves robustness under Gaussian noise, temporal misalignment, and fully missing channels, while preserving clean accuracy. Applied to a dual-correlation network, it yields the most robust model in our experiments, outperforming a deliberately strong bounded architectural foil, BoundEx, which combines a learnable gate, a fallback residual to the endogenous backbone, and per-channel exogenous FiLM modulation. Architecture-by-dropout ablations, gate-behavior diagnostics, and a representation-level bound show that explicit architectural boundedness is not necessary for this robustness: an unbounded model trained with exogenous dropout is more robust than the bounded model in every domain. We release a corruption-robustness benchmark and recommend exogenous dropout as a simple, strong baseline for future work on time series forecasting with covariates.
Sparse feature selection is critical for high-dimensional machine learning, yet traditional $\ell_1$-regularized methods are often brittle under observational noise and spurious correlations, leading to unstable feature supports and degraded generalization. Although adversarial training has been widely used to improve model robustness, its interaction with hierarchical sparse feature selection remains underexplored. In this work, we propose Adversarial LassoNet (AdLNet), a stability-driven sparse feature selection framework that integrates input-space adversarial perturbations with the hierarchical sparsity mechanism of LassoNet. We derive a tractable first-order adversarial approximation under local smoothness assumptions and provide an NTK-inspired spectral analysis to characterize how perturbation-driven training can reduce gradient concentration. Experiments on high-dimensional SERS data, six public benchmark datasets, and ColoredMNIST show that AdLNet maintains competitive sparse-selection performance while improving out-of-distribution robustness by 4.4\% and feature support reproducibility by 6.3\% under nearly matched support sparsity on ColoredMNIST. On the high-dimensional lung cancer screening dataset, AdLNet achieves a 5.3\% test accuracy gain and a 6.0\% AUC improvement over vanilla LassoNet. Code and dataset are available at https://github.com/719573/Adversarial-LassoNet.
Shapley values are widely used to attribute value to training data based on their marginal contribution to performance on a validation set. Existing practice often assumes these values are stable once the training data and model are fixed. In this work, we uncover a systematic vulnerability: even modest changes to the validation set, such as introducing noises, cause directional shifts in Shapley distributions. As noises are added, Shapley values of training samples compress toward zero. We trace this to a noise-induced neighborhood reshuffling effect: perturbations alter the local rank order between validation and training samples, flattening the valuation landscape. Using the KNN-Shapley framework, we show through synthetic and real data that these shifts are consistent and reproducible. Our findings challenge the assumption of Shapley stability and reveal a new axis of fragility in data valuation. We propose normalization and boundary-aware validation strategies to mitigate these distortions and enable more robust, interpretable valuation in machine learning marketplaces.
In this paper, we develop a fractional stochastic neural network with residual dynamics driven by fractional Brownian motion. By introducing a discrete stochastic maximum principle for the network, we construct the corresponding adjoint recursion. For deterministic network parameters, we prove mean square convergence of projected samplewise stochastic gradient descent. Numerical experiments include a closed form convergence test, noisy regression with uncertainty quantification, long memory time series generation and image classification under structured perturbations. The results identify settings in which fractional drivers improve long memory recovery or robustness relative to Brownian and deterministic baselines.
A recent line of work has reframed individual decision trees as linear models on engineered features associated with their splits, opening routes for oracle inequalities and feature-importance reinterpretation, but leaving open the question of what unified geometric object a forest induces when one indexes its feature map by nodes rather than by splits. The present paper studies that object. KPP indexes the feature map by the nodes of the forest, weighted by a path metric that turns each coordinate into a component of a squared-Euclidean path-isometric embedding. KPP unifies four pillars under a single non-diagonal Gram that carries a metric: prediction, exact additive attribution, deterministic Lipschitz robust radius in the KPP metric, and uniform Rademacher risk bounds for regression and classification under fixed, honest, or cross-fit conditioning. All probabilistic guarantees are conditional on the representation and are stated under three explicit conditioning regimes; the robust-radius guarantee is deterministic in the KPP metric rather than in a norm on the raw input. Conjectured fast-rate refinements for both regression and classification are stated as open problems and are not claimed as theorems.
Time series forecasting (TSF) underpins consequential decisions in energy, transportation, finance, and healthcare, yet TSF models are almost universally ranked by a single number (e.g., average error) on clean held-out data, under the implicit assumption that it predicts deployed reliability. However, real faults are not i.i.d noise but structured events with temporal shape, broken cross-variable dependencies, regime change coupled with missingness, and causal propagation across a sensing pipeline. Treating TSF robustness as a data-quality problem, we present TS-Fault, a benchmark that evaluates forecasting models under explicit, parameterized fault scenarios with controllable semantic difficulty. TS-Fault organizes recurring failures into four modes along two orthogonal axes (observation- vs mechanism-level; univariate vs multivariate) and injects each fault into the most prediction-critical window via a unified importance score. This design enables robustness to be tested against the structures models actually rely on, rather than reduced to generic noise sensitivity. We evaluate 21 models across 6 datasets, 4 modes, and 5 difficulty levels under a paired clean/corrupt protocol. The results reveal three findings that contradict common leaderboard intuition: (i) clean-data accuracy anti-correlates with robustness; (ii) clean rankings are preserved under observation-level faults but reshuffled under mechanism-level faults; and (iii) all catastrophic failures occur under mechanism-level faults, with foundation models achieving the highest clean-data accuracy yet exhibiting the greatest fragility. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/Ray-zyy/TS-Fault.
This paper proposes a novel loss concept for supervised classification tasks. Rather than enforcing a direct mapping from each input sample to a single assigned label, we define an optimization objective over all classifier outputs as a bimodal Gaussian distribution. This softer target formulation implicitly captures class ambiguity, mitigates overfitting, and encourages the learning of more robust decision boundaries, all without requiring additional label information. Experimental results demonstrate consistent improvements in robustness, with particularly pronounced gains in low-data regimes, while requiring only minimal modifications to standard training pipelines.
Ricardo Ribeiro Pereira, Bruno Casal Laraña, Nádia Soares +1cs.LG
When working with real-world temporal data, it is common to encounter features whose distribution is changing over time. The naive employment of Machine Learning models on this unstable data might lead to rapidly degrading performance, especially if the new distribution is much different from what was previously seen during training. In order to cope with this problem, it is critical to automatically identify features that are changing over time. With these features detected, data scientists and other practitioners will be able to mitigate the issue (for instance, by applying data transformations), deploying more robust models that retain high performance for longer periods of time. In this paper, we describe which temporal changes a feature should not suffer from, and propose TEDD, a technique to a) identify when a dataset might lead to an unstable Machine Learning model and b) automatically detect which features cause such lack of robustness. In order to achieve it, we leverage a regression model to highlight which features contribute to a good prediction of an instance's timestamp. We compare our approach to other methods in real and synthetic data, testing their detection capability on all simple change patterns. We show that our method: detects all types of basic changes, both for numerical and categorical features; can detect multivariate drifts; returns a comparable value measuring the amount of change of each feature; requires no parameter tuning; and is scalable both on number of features and instances of the dataset.
Ha-Linh Nguyen, Hong-Anh Nguyen, Minh-Duc La +4cs.LG cs.AI
High-quality labeled data is essential for training reliable ML/DL models. However, real-world datasets often contain a considerable proportion of corrupted labels, which can severely degrade model performance. To address this problem, we propose CANOLA, a novel framework for correcting corrupted labels through noise-aware learning and iterative label refinement. CANOLA explicitly estimates the underlying noise distribution of the dataset and incorporates this information into the training of a noise-aware Deep Neural Network. By incorporating noise characteristics during learning, CANOLA enables the model to down-weight unreliable supervision signals and focus on trustworthy patterns, thereby improving robustness and generalization. Label correction is performed via cautious, iterative soft label refinement, in which model predictions are blended with observed labels to prevent premature or erroneous updates. This progressive refinement allows the dataset to be repaired in a stable and controlled manner. We evaluate CANOLA on six widely used datasets under realistic noisy labeling scenarios. Experimental results show that CANOLA consistently outperforms SOTA label correction methods, achieving relative improvements ranging from 19% to 52% in error reduction. Moreover, models trained on datasets corrected by CANOLA obtain substantial downstream performance gains. Even simple classifiers trained on CANOLA's corrected data can outperform complex model-centric approaches by margins of up to 67%.
Justin Tahmassebpur, Asadullah Bhuiyan, Hyejin Kim +1cs.LG cond-mat.dis-nn
Learning from imperfect data is a central theme in machine learning, connecting practical questions of robustness to fundamental questions of learnability. Here we examine attribute noise: learning from corrupted inputs while keeping the labels intact, a setting that has received considerably less analytical attention than its label-noise counterpart. We consider two types of corruption models: additive noise and replacement noise. Through experiments with multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) on corrupted classification datasets, we find that neural networks remain robust, maintaining well-above-chance accuracy even when inputs are >90% corrupted -- far beyond human recognition. To understand this robustness, we analyze infinite-width networks in the heavy-corruption regime using a mean-field-inspired approach and derive a leading-order decision rule for the classification outcome: the network implements a prototype rule, the nearest-class-mean, assigning each test point to the class whose training-set average it most closely resembles. This leading-order decision rule is universal across a broad range of MLP architectures, holding for any depth, as well as a wide class of activation functions and noise distributions. The same centroid mechanism closely matches finite-width network behavior in our experiments and provides an interpretable and analytically tractable account of why learning can succeed even when individual training examples carry almost no signal.
Tianyu Ruan, Fengzhuo Zhang, Shuche Wang +1cs.LG cs.AI
Muon has recently emerged as a state-of-the-art optimizer for pretraining Large Language Models (LLMs) and vision classifiers. Despite its efficiency advantage over Adam and SGD, the feature-learning advantage of Muon remains unclear. This paper investigates Muon's feature-learning advantage through the lens of robustness and transferability. First, by evaluating pretrained models on corrupted images and texts, we show that features learned by Muon are consistently more robust than those learned by Adam and SGD across different architectures, including transformers and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). Using trained layer-wise probes, we further show that this robustness advantage is reflected in larger logit margins across layers. Second, by training linear classifiers or fine-tuning full models from pretrained parameters on downstream tasks, we demonstrate that Muon-learned features transfer more effectively than those learned by Adam and SGD. This transferability advantage is further supported by the diversity of hidden states across layers, as measured by effective rank. Finally, in a representative classification problem with multi-component features, we prove that Muon attains larger margins and higher effective rank than Adam and SGD, providing theoretical support for our empirical findings.
Understanding nonlinear feature interactions is crucial in science and engineering, yet standard multilayer perceptrons (MLPs) often capture such interactions only implicitly, leading to entangled representations that can impair robustness and interpretability. We investigate product-unit residual networks (PURe) that integrate multiplicative product units with residual connections to explicitly model cross-feature couplings while stabilizing optimization. We conduct a systematic evaluation on an interaction-driven synthetic benchmark and two real-world datasets, assessing predictive accuracy, robustness to Gaussian feature noise, and performance under limited training data, and we compare real- and complex-valued variants under a matched parameter budget. Beyond accuracy, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP)-based interaction analyses show that PURe learns more concentrated and structurally coherent interaction patterns than MLP baselines. Overall, PURe achieves competitive or improved performance, better robustness and sample efficiency in low-data regimes, and enhanced interaction-level interpretability.
Robustness, domain adaptation, photometric and occlusion invariance, compositional generalisation, temporal robustness, alignment safety, and classical anisotropic regularisation are usually treated as separate problems with separate method families. This paper argues that much of their shared structure is one statistical problem: estimate the covariance of label-preserving deployment nuisance, then regularise the encoder Jacobian along a matrix whose range covers that covariance (the matching principle). CORAL, adversarial training, IRM, augmentation, metric learning, Jacobian penalties, and alignment-style constraints are different estimators of that object, not independent robustness tricks. In the linear-Gaussian model we prove closed-form optimality (Theorem A), including cube-root water-filling within the matched range; necessity of range coverage for quadratic Jacobian penalties (Theorem G); the same range dichotomy at deep global minima; and two falsification controls (Lemma C; Corollaries E), with seven conditional consistency lemmas (D1-D7) for estimation under standard identifiability assumptions. We introduce the Trajectory Deviation Index (TDI), a label-free probe of embedding sensitivity when task accuracy or Jacobian Frobenius norm is insufficient. Thirteen pre-registered blocks from classical ML through Qwen2.5-7B test the predicted matched, then isotropic, then wrong-W ordering on geometry and deployment drift; twelve pass, and the sole exception (Office-31) is an eigengap failure named before the run. At 7B scale, matched style-PMH improves selective honesty and preserves Style TDI where standard DPO degrades it. The contribution is naming the deployment nuisance covariance, stating what the regulariser must do, and supplying a closed-form falsifiable theory once that object is identified, not universality on every leaderboard.
Spurious correlations in real-world datasets cause machine learning models to rely on irrelevant patterns, undermining reliability, generalization, and fairness. Active learning offers a promising way to address this failure mode by querying informative samples that distinguish core features from spurious ones. However, standard active-learning methods simply append queried examples to the labeled set, effectively updating only the likelihood term. In deep learning regimes, the influence of these informative samples can be diluted by the larger labeled set and memorized by overparameterized models. We propose Cumulative Active Meta-Learning (CAML), an active-learning framework that uses queried examples to meta-learn the prior, or inductive bias, governing how the model adapts. CAML casts each active-learning round as a meta-learning task: the current labeled set serves as meta-train data for adaptation, while the newly queried batch serves as meta-test data for evaluating generalization. Unlike conventional meta-learning, which treats tasks as independent and identically distributed, CAML exploits the sequential dependence between active-learning rounds by maintaining a cumulative inductive bias that is progressively refined. Theoretically, we show that this cumulative formulation introduces interaction terms that couple earlier meta-learned inductive biases with later query-induced objectives, capturing dependencies absent from standard meta-learning. Empirically, CAML improves minority-group accuracy across spurious-correlation benchmarks and acquisition strategies, with gains of up to 27.8% on Dominoes, 29.9% on Waterbirds, 14.3% on SpuCo, and 24.0% on CivilComments.
Robust forecast aggregation combines the predictions of multiple information sources to perform well in the worst case across all possible information structures. Previous work largely focuses on settings with a known binary state space, where the state is either 0 or 1. We study prior-agnostic robust forecast aggregation in which the aggregator observes only experts' reports, yet is ignorant of both the underlying joint information structure and the full prior, including the underlying state space. Unlike the standard model that fixes the binary state space {0, 1}, we allow the (binary) unknown state values to be arbitrary numbers in [0, 1], so the same reported probability may correspond to very different realized outcome frequencies across environments. Our main contribution is a simple, explicit, closed-form log-odds aggregator that linearly pools forecasts in logit space, together with (nearly-)tight minimax-regret guarantees across three knowledge regimes. We first show that under conditionally independent (CI) signals, robust aggregation with an unknown state space is strictly harder than in the known-state setting by establishing a larger lower bound, and our aggregation rule can achieve a worst-case regret of 0.0255. Along the way, we also characterize tight regret bounds for Blackwell-ordered structures and for general information structures. In the classical setting with known state space {0,1}, our aggregator achieves regret strictly below 0.0226 for CI structures. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first explicit closed-form aggregator that achieves a regret upper bound strictly less than 0.0226. Finally, we extend the model where the aggregator additionally knows each expert's marginal forecast distribution; in this setting, with the CI structures, we show that a generalized log-odds rule achieves regret of 0.0228, complementing with a lower bound of 0.0225.