Post-hoc calibration is widely adopted to correct probability estimates from trained classifiers, yet most evaluations report aggregate performance without testing whether that performance holds across distinct operating conditions within a single dataset. We present a pre-registered, condition-stratified robustness analysis comparing temperature scaling (TEMP) and isotonic regression (ISO) across four controlled conditions (C1--C4). Four hypothesis groups are evaluated: discrimination deltas with Holm-corrected multiplicity control (H1), Brier score differences (H2), calibration slope outcomes (H3), and AUROC differences under best-condition setups (H4). TEMP-minus-ISO discrimination deltas remain small across all conditions (-0.0155 to 0.0139), with Holm-adjusted p-values of 0.9895 everywhere. TEMP Brier differences are consistently negative (C1: -0.0002 through C4: -0.0074), while ISO shows sign reversals. TEMP calibration slopes stay closer to unity in every condition (range 0.7597--0.9493) than ISO slopes (0.1364--0.2726). AUROC differences shift from near zero in C1 (-0.0004) to positive in C4 (0.0264). These results establish that in-dataset robustness is condition-dependent and metric-specific. No claim of external transportability is made.
Recent research has introduced distributed self-supervised learning (D-SSL) approaches to leverage vast amounts of unlabeled decentralized data. However, D-SSL faces the critical challenge of data heterogeneity, and there is limited theoretical understanding of how different D-SSL frameworks respond to this challenge. To fill this gap, we present a rigorous theoretical analysis of the robustness of D-SSL frameworks under non-IID (non-independent and identically distributed) settings. Our results show that pre-training with Masked Image Modeling (MIM) is inherently more robust to heterogeneous data than Contrastive Learning (CL), and that the robustness of decentralized SSL increases with average network connectivity, implying that federated learning (FL) is no less robust than decentralized learning (DecL). These findings provide a solid theoretical foundation for guiding the design of future D-SSL algorithms. To further illustrate the practical implications of our theory, we introduce MAR loss, a refinement of the MIM objective with local-to-global alignment regularization. Extensive experiments across model architectures and distributed settings validate our theoretical insights, and additionally confirm the effectiveness of MAR loss as an application of our analysis.
Ka Ching Chan, Qiana Liu, Sanjib Tiwari +1cs.LG stat.ML
Structural equation modelling (SEM) is widely used in survey-based business and information systems research to assess latent constructs and theory-driven structural relationships. However, SEM path significance is obtained within a particular model specification and may not show whether findings remain stable under alternative estimation frameworks. This study develops and demonstrates a staged robustness analysis framework that connects SEM, ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, and Double Machine Learning (DML). SEM is first used to refine the measurement structure and estimate the robustness-baseline SEM model, in which the full theory-specified structural path system is retained for downstream robustness analysis before final structural path evaluation. OLS regression is then applied to SEM-derived construct scores as a transparent regression benchmark. Finally, DML-style residualisation is used to examine whether each tested focal relationship remains stable after flexible machine-learning-based adjustment for observed controls. Learner-sensitivity checks compare Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and Support Vector Machine learners, and selected reverse-direction diagnostics are used to examine directional sensitivity. The framework is demonstrated using a FinTech Digital Customer Intimacy survey model. The findings identify which relationships are stable across SEM, OLS, and DML-style checks, and which require more cautious interpretation. A reproducible Google Colab workbook and generated result files are publicly available, providing a reusable template that researchers and students can adapt to other survey-based latent-construct studies. The paper contributes a practical robustness workflow and interpretation guide for survey-based researchers seeking to complement SEM with conventional and machine-learning-based robustness checks.