Existence-Field Diffusion Model for Spatial Point Processes with Variable Cardinality

We study generative modeling of spatial point processes (SPP), where both the number of points and their spatial configuration are governed by a joint distribution. While diffusion models have achieved strong performance in modeling complex distributions, extending them to variable-cardinality SPP remains challenging. Existing approaches either decouple the modeling of cardinality and spatial structure, or rely on discrete trans-dimensional operations to modify the number of points, resulting in inflexible and asymmetric generative dynamics. We propose the existence-field diffusion model (EFDM) for spatial point processes modeling, where each potential point is associated with an existence variable representing its degree of presence. This enables a unified diffusion process that jointly models both spatial locations and cardinality without requiring explicit discrete transitions. We demonstrate that our approach provides a flexible and general framework for generative modeling of spatial point processes, achieving improved modeling capability on datasets with varying cardinality.

Manifold Constrained Conformal Prediction for Spatial Events

We introduce a new conformal prediction method that constructs calibrated prediction sets over collections of spatial events, such as tropical cyclone genesis and earthquake locations. Forecasting natural hazards has become increasingly important, due to their significant economic impact, and quantifying the uncertainty of predictions is critical for accurate risk assessment. Our approach works by representing spatial point clouds as empirical measures so that we can score them using (sliced) Wasserstein distance, then constraining the resulting distribution-valued prediction set to be supported only near the training data manifold. We derive a coverage lower bound for the intersected sets and show that, in practice, this gap can be made small through a simple data-adaptive selection criterion. Because the resulting set is not analytically tractable, we introduce a modified flow-based sampling procedure, which allows us to represent and apply these prediction sets in practice as ensembles. Numerical experiments on synthetic data, tropical cyclone genesis, and earthquake occurrences show that our method achieves near-nominal coverage, with significantly lower energy distance and manifold distance than highest predictive density region (HDR) baselines along with generative model baselines.