Temporal Domain Generalization (TDG) aims to learn from historical domains and generalize to unseen future distributions under concept drift. Nevertheless, prevailing TDG methods struggle with complex real-world streaming scenarios involving both multi-scale drift patterns (e.g., long-term periodicity intertwined with short-term incremental changes) and local uncertainties, especially in continuous settings where observations arrive irregularly. To address this limitation, we propose FreKoo++, a novel continuous spectral-dynamical framework that pioneers the unification of continuous Koopman modal dynamics with adaptive spectral disentanglement. Specifically, FreKoo++ maps source-domain parameters into a compact latent space, modeling their evolution as a superposition of learnable continuous modes where complex eigenvalues jointly encode oscillatory frequency and temporal growth or decay. This formulation naturally accommodates irregular timestamps and supports arbitrary horizon extrapolation without rigid discrete stepping. Furthermore, we propose a new adaptive soft spectral weighting mechanism backed by stability and spectral regularization, which automatically isolates persistent dominant dynamics from transient noise without relying on manual frequency thresholds. We derive modal approximation and generalization bounds that characterize how amplitude and eigenvalue estimation errors propagate with the prediction horizon. Extensive experiments on both discrete and continuous TDG benchmarks demonstrate that FreKoo++ achieves state-of-the-art performance under complex multi-scale drifts and irregular sampling.
Observational datasets frequently contain many baseline variables, yet investigators estimating causal effects may not know which variables to include in the adjustment set. Confounding information may also be distributed weakly across many variables. Propensity scores can simplify adjustment by reducing high-dimensional covariates to a scalar with binary treatment. Although the propensity score is the coarsest balancing score, this distributional optimality does not imply maximal specificity over causal graphs. We instead examine all causal graphs among a candidate score, treatment, and outcome while allowing latent variables. Under faithfulness, we identify the largest set of unconditional and conditional dependence relations whose truth is invariant to whether treatment causes the outcome, leaving treatment-effect estimation to the downstream analysis. This criterion defines the maximally specific graph class expressible through these relations. We then develop the proposed algorithm, which operationalizes the criterion through a generalized eigenvalue problem whose score space targets the span of a balancing coordinate and an outcome-guided coordinate. We show that sufficiently informative proxies can recover this span without direct observation of the adjustment variables, characterize the resulting estimation and causal errors, and establish bootstrap validity for the complete procedure. Simulations and a real-data application demonstrate superior performance over several alternatives.
Matrix spectral optimizers reshape weight-update spectra but usually delegate vector-valued biases to a separate optimizer. We study whether this separation is neutral. We formulate each affine layer as a joint momentum matrix $A=[M_W,αm_b]$ and apply a capped regularized-inverse spectral map to the complete matrix, producing both the weight and physical bias updates. A strict five-seed ablation on a four-layer BERT-mini trained from scratch on IMDb compares exact-SVD Muon, weight-only inverse shaping, affine-probe inverse shaping, and the proposed joint regularized inverse (JRI). Weight-only inverse shaping raises validation-loss-selected test accuracy from $84.903\pm0.242\%$ to $85.562\pm0.308\%$ and lowers selected test loss from $0.3479$ to $0.3345$. Allowing bias to alter the joint SVD while retaining an independent Adam bias update does not improve over weight-only inverse shaping. Using the transformed bias jointly raises selected test accuracy to $85.738\pm0.180\%$ and lowers test loss to $0.3291$, with all five seeds improving relative to the probe baseline. During the peak-performance window, JRI preserves the eligible weight-update norm while reducing the bias-update norm from $0.02095$ to $0.00301$, lowers boundary-function share from $86.58\%$ to $78.97\%$, and changes the cosine between weight-induced boundary motion and explicit bias from $+0.030$ to $-0.137$. An independent 22-seed replication yields $85.743\pm0.203\%$ selected test accuracy. These results identify joint affine spectral allocation as a small but consistent extension to weight-only spectral optimization.
Synthetic control (SC) matches a treated unit's pre-treatment trajectory to a weighted combination of donor units. We study Spectral SC, which instead matches the treated unit in coordinates defined by the leading temporal singular vectors of the donor panel, and a hybrid estimator that places separately tunable weight on retained and discarded directions, nesting raw-path SC and truncated Spectral SC as endpoints. We prove that the family reduces exactly to raw-path SC at full rank, that exact balance on $K$ retained dimensions with $N_0$ donors is underdetermined whenever $N_0>K+1$, with an affine solution set of dimension $N_0-K-1$, and that spectral imbalance maps to treatment-effect bias through a finite-sample best-linear-predictor decomposition. We evaluate the estimators across eleven data-generating regimes, using $400$ replications per regime and donor-only placebo validation to select regularization and the mixing weight. Truncated Spectral SC has significantly higher RMSE than tuned raw-path SC in every regime, with paired differences equal to $4$ to $11$ Monte Carlo standard errors. The hybrid estimator selects raw-path matching in most replications and is statistically indistinguishable from tuned SC in most regimes. The result is highly sensitive to preprocessing. With raw inputs, the performance gap is large; after removing unit and time fixed effects before spectral decomposition, as suggested by the assumptions behind our bound, the gap nearly disappears and placebo validation begins to favor truncation. We interpret these findings diagnostically rather than as evidence that Spectral SC should replace raw-path SC. Basis-estimation noise, balancing underdetermination, and fixed-effects contamination determine when spectral matching can help.
Spectral methods are among the most widely used techniques for community detection, clustering, and graph learning. Their performance, however, critically depends on the accurate estimation of the underlying spectral subspace and can deteriorate substantially in the presence of noise, outliers, or model perturbations. To address this limitation, we propose a Regularized Projection Matrix Approximation (RPMA) framework for robust estimation of rank-$K$ projection matrices. RPMA extends classical spectral projection by incorporating a regularization term, producing projection estimates that are more robust, sparse, and interpretable. We formulate the proposed model as an optimization problem on the manifold of rank-$K$ projection matrices and exploit its geometric equivalence to the Grassmann manifold. Based on this manifold characterization, we derive the first- and second-order optimality conditions, establish the local stability of the regularized leading eigenspace, and characterize the stability of the critical-point landscape under sufficiently small regularization. To efficiently solve the resulting nonconvex optimization problem, we develop a Riemannian gradient projection algorithm with backtracking line search, together with a more efficient Cayley--Sherman--Morrison--Woodbury (Cayley--SMW) gradient method that avoids repeated eigendecompositions. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that RPMA substantially improves the recovery accuracy of projection matrices and consistently outperforms conventional spectral projection methods for community detection and clustering under noisy environments.
Charles Bokor, Mark Cary, Denise Morrey +1cs.LG math.DS
Highly nonlinear chaotic dynamical systems remain difficult to model due to fundamental trade-offs between complexity, expressivity, and data efficiency. Modern machine learning methods achieve strong predictive performance but often rely on a-priori system knowledge or curated data with limited interpretability. Koopman operator theory offers a promising direction via linear representation in an infinite-dimensional observable space. However, many data-driven Koopman methods seek globally valid operators for which useful finite-dimensional spectral embeddings remain difficult to identify under these constraints. To overcome associated limitations, we introduce Fuzzy Spectral Region Decomposition (fSRD), a fully automated learning framework for estimating finite Koopman representation via multiple operators. The proposed method realizes a data-adaptive framework for assembling locally invariant embeddings, termed Invariant Decomposition. fSRD achieves highly accurate linear reconstructions of nonlinear systems while learning finite-dimensional representations of their induced evolution operators, bridging interpretable operator-theoretic models with expressive data-driven sequence learning. These embeddings are adaptively constructed via a global fuzzy tree model, drawing inspiration from fuzzy neural architectures to learn the induced dynamics while prioritizing parsimonious solutions. Empirical results across canonical chaotic systems (e.g., Lorenz and Duffing) and high-dimensional real-world data demonstrate strong predictive accuracy, interpretability, and robust expressivity across data-rich and data-limited regimes, highlighting the method's generality.
Principal component regression (PCR) regularizes high-dimensional prediction by choosing a spectral cutoff, but rank selection cannot correct systematic inflation of the retained empirical eigenvalues. We study clean Gaussian random designs in which the aggregate covariance tail creates a nearly scalar sample-space floor comparable to the predictive head scale. De-floored principal component regression (dPCR) retains the cutoff and subtracts an estimated floor from the retained denominators. We prove an ordinary-PCR prediction-risk lower bound uniform over all ranks and a high-probability dPCR upper bound. When the floor is sharp and inexpensive to remove in population prediction risk, the conditional risk of dPCR is asymptotically negligible relative to that of the best ordinary PCR rank. An exact risk decomposition explains the separation: denominator inflation is governed by first spectral mass, whereas the clean prediction cost of correction is governed by squared spectral mass. A same-sample trimmed-mean floor estimate attains the oracle dPCR upper-bound rate at a prespecified rank, and the separation persists under approximate predictive alignment when the tail prediction-energy fraction vanishes. Separate pointwise fixed-aspect formulas show that the risk-optimal positive scalar correction improves rank-$1$ PCR, whereas mean-floor subtraction is generally not optimal for a broad Marchenko--Pastur bulk.
Hamza Virk, Bijan Mazaheri, Yihren Wucs.LG stat.ML
Identifying heterogeneous treatment effects under unobserved confounding is central in observational causal inference. In proxy models with a discrete latent confounder, prior Synthetic Potential Outcomes (SPO) [Mazaheri-Squires-Uhler '25] recover the mixture of treatment effects through recursively constructed scalar moments. We show that this sequence is one projection of a more fundamental object. Under the same population factorization assumptions, there is an exact compressed observable operator: after projecting onto the shared proxy signal subspace, the difference of two treatment-arm quotient operators is similar to the diagonal matrix of latent treatment effects. Its eigenvalues are the latent effects; its lifted left eigenvectors, after anchor normalization, recover the target-proxy feature matrix and then the latent mixture proportions. Every scalar SPO moment is a bilinear functional of a power of this operator. The resulting estimator handles overcomplete proxy systems, replaces high-order scalar inversion with finite-dimensional spectral analysis, and admits high-probability first-order perturbation bounds for treatment effects, feature rows, and simplex-projected mixture weights.
Varvara Nazarenko, Timur Lidzhiev, Alexander Tarakanovcs.LG math.NA math.ST
Spectral methods are widely used to construct representations from the geometry of data, but they often rely on a fixed kernel, graph Laplacian, or manually selected feature scaling. We propose Physics-Informed Eigenfunction Features with Learnable Scaling (PIEFS), a supervised neural representation-learning framework with a spectral inductive bias, based on a modified Dirichlet energy. In PIEFS, scalar coordinate maps are trained under empirical Gram orthogonality, a supervised linear readout, and a Dirichlet penalty in which the input gradient is transformed by a learnable metric $A(x)=Λ(x)U(x)$. The diagonal factor $Λ(x)$ controls anisotropic scaling, while the orthogonal factor $U(x)$ is parameterized by a structured product of Givens rotations. This construction yields task-adaptive Dirichlet-regularized coordinates rather than eigenfunctions of a fixed supervision-independent operator. Experiments on synthetic, tabular, and image-based benchmarks study the effect of identity, diagonal, and rotation-scaling metrics, and compare the resulting coordinates with classical baselines and NeuralEF. The results support PIEFS as a compact supervised spectral representation method and identify optimization stability, validation on explicit operator eigenproblems, and richer metric parameterizations as the main directions for future work.
Bogomolny, Bohigas and Schmit (BBS) found that the spectrum of the pairwise distance matrix on N points sampled from a smooth d-dimensional manifold encodes a signature of the underlying geometry. We develop I-BBS (Inference-BBS), a coordinate-free method that identifies a low-dimensional latent sub-manifold embedded in a high-dimensional ambient distance matrix alone, without accessing an ambient high-dimensional vector space. It therefore applies even when that space is only partly observable or undefined. We model the ambient embedding by two classes of generative noise, model-based and model-free. The noise mixes the latent signal with off-manifold components, so the eigenvalues reorganise collectively and the latent geometry cannot be read off eigenvalue by eigenvalue. We recover it instead from two integer-stable signatures that survive the noise: the multiplicity of the top non-Perron multiplet, which fixes $d$, and a parameter-free law for how the multiplet positions shrink as the noise grows. On synthetic spheres $S^1$, $S^2$ and $S^3$ these integer signatures are far more stable under noise than the continuous spectral slope, and a blind test recovers both the manifold and the noise model from a single distance matrix. Applications to neural-network representations and to the dynamic training regime are developed in two companion papers.
Selecting a fixed-size subset that maximizes the determinant of a positive semidefinite kernel is the MAP problem for a size-constrained determinantal point process and the classical maximum-entropy sampling problem. Although this discrete problem is NP-hard, a classical spectral bound gives an efficiently computable ceiling using the leading eigenvalues. The same ceiling is the exact optimum of the associated Stiefel relaxation, so the continuous problem is already solved by the leading eigenspace. We study what this eigenspace implies for discrete rounding. The leading eigenvectors induce a projection determinantal point process whose probability for a subset equals its squared coordinate volume. We prove that the gap between the determinant of any subset and the spectral ceiling is at most its negative log-probability under this distribution. Consequently, the integrality gap is bounded by the min-entropy and equals it when the kernel rank matches the subset size. Projection-DPP rounding also has an expected gap bounded by the Shannon entropy and admits a high-probability additive guarantee. These results identify leading-subspace localization, rather than eigenvalue decay alone, as the geometry controlling roundability. This analysis yields CertDPP, a matrix-free pipeline that computes the leading eigenspace, draws projection-DPP samples, optionally improves them by determinant-increasing swaps, and reports the gap from a verified spectral ceiling. Controlled experiments validate the entropy identities, compare with exact MAP on small instances, and demonstrate linear scaling in the ground-set size for the rounding stage.