Why and When Neural Networks Improve Local Approximation in Optimization

Published experience with neural surrogates in derivative-free optimisation is contradictory: the same family of models that cuts the evaluation count of one solver leaves another unchanged, or makes it worse. We show that the contradiction dissolves once three factors are stated, and that these, rather than the fit accuracy a training curve reports, are what delimit when a learned local model pays. Role: a surrogate that proposes candidates the true objective must still approve helps, while one that replaces a gradient the solver depends on hurts. Radius: a model fitted to an optimisation path is reliable only inside a bounded neighbourhood, and its error neither vanishes as that neighbourhood shrinks nor survives its growth. Room: a surrogate can only accelerate progress the base method is still able to make. We formalise radius-aware local generalisation, relate it to the classical fully linear condition, and test each factor with the surrogate class, training pipeline and base method held fixed. Over 117 benchmark instances safeguarded assistance raises the instances solved to high accuracy from 67 to 84 while gradient replacement lowers them to 65; removing the gradient term from the training loss cuts surrogate acceptance from 0.703 to 0.148; and 1000 paired comparisons over ten noise levels show no noise threshold, only a base method that stops early. The same factors bound the gain: a model-based trust-region solver, which leaves little room, drops from 88 to 86 when the identical surrogate is attached, and released interpolation software stays ahead at 103, and on a Monte-Carlo inventory model repairing the acceptance interface is worth 10.40 cost units against 0.00 for the surrogate.

Frugal Bayesian Optimization: Scalable Surrogates for Data- and Resource-Limited Discovery

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is widely adopted for data-efficient optimization in scientific and engineering applications, yet its computational cost is rarely evaluated alongside optimization performance. Here we present a systematic, compute-aware study of BO that evaluates surrogate models along two axes: optimization quality and computational frugality. Across eight benchmark functions and nine real-world datasets spanning materials science, mechanics, robotics, chemistry, and machine learning, we benchmark four surrogate models: Gaussian Processes, Random Forests, NGBoost, and Bayesian Adaptive Spline Surfaces. We show that Gaussian Process-based BO consistently incurs the highest time and memory overhead without delivering superior optimization or sample efficiency. In contrast, scalable alternatives achieve equal or better performance at a fraction of the computational cost. Motivated by these findings, we introduce a surrogate-recommendation framework that predicts the most suitable BO surrogate from inexpensive dataset characteristics. Together, these results establish FruBO as a reproducible, compute-aware baseline for Bayesian Optimization and provide practical guidance for surrogate selection under limited computational and experimental budgets.

Surrogate assisted diversity estimation in neural ensemble search

Ensembles are a standard way to improve the performance and robustness of deep neural networks, but their effectiveness crucially depends on both the quality and the diversity of individual models. Most neural architecture search (NAS) methods are computationally expensive. Extending them to neural ensemble search (NES), which requires joint optimization of individual architectures and their ensemble composition, leads to an exponential growth of the search space and makes the problem computationally intractable. To address this, we introduce a dual-objective surrogate-guided ensemble search: candidate architectures are represented as directed acyclic graphs, and two surrogate models are trained independently to estimate predictive accuracy and diversity potential. Their combined estimates guide an NES framework that efficiently identifies architectures that are both individually strong and collectively diverse. Our final ensemble achieves competitive or superior performance compared to standard baselines such as Deep Ensembles and Random Search on FashionMNIST, CIFAR-10, and CIFAR-100.

Constrained Bayesian Optimisation with Multiple Information Sources

Bayesian Optimisation (BO) under unknown constraints is particularly challenging when feasible regions are small. In such settings, existing methods that typically rely solely on evaluations of the true objective and constraints struggle to efficiently explore the design space. However, many real-world applications offer auxiliary data sources (e.g. surrogate models or simplified simulations) that can support early exploration. Despite this potential, their integration into constrained BO remains largely unexplored. We propose a general multi-source framework that extends constrained Max-value Entropy Search, capturing inter-source correlation while balancing evaluation cost and information gain. Experiments on both synthetic and physics-based benchmarks show that our method efficiently identifies feasible and optimal solutions, even when auxiliary data are only weakly correlated. The proposed approach consistently outperforms existing methods, particularly in early-stage exploration.

AK-MCS-C2 : Active Kriging Monte Carlo Simulation method with conformal certification for failure probability estimation

We introduce a novel active-learning framework for failure probability estimation in structural reliability analysis that integrates Active Kriging Monte Carlo simulation with conformal prediction. The proposed approach employs an adaptive cross-conformal strategy specifically designed for small-sample settings and kriging surrogate models using the J+GP conformal estimator. Unlike standard AK-MCS methods, the proposed framework provides distribution-free guarantees on prediction errors, leading to more reliable classification of samples near the limit-state surface. This improved uncertainty quantification enhances both the accuracy and robustness of failure probability estimates, especially for rare-event regimes where such efficiency is crucial. Reproducible numerical results illustrate the effectiveness of the method and also compare it to classical approaches on well-established benchmarks.

SAILS: Surrogate-based Analysis of Interactions via Local Effect Smooths

Feature interactions drive much of the predictive power of machine learning models, yet existing explanation methods only detect and quantify interactions without revealing their functional form, or visualize only restricted interaction types. We propose Surrogate-based Analysis of Interactions via Local effect Smooths (SAILS), a model-agnostic framework that analyzes pairwise interactions through interpretable generalized additive model (GAM) surrogates fitted to the local effects of a black-box model. For each interval of a feature of interest, the surrogate smooth terms isolate the interaction components on derivative level, enabling (i) interaction detection through a heuristic derived from significance tests on smooth terms, (ii) interaction form categorization into linear, product-separable, and non-product-separable types, and (iii) tailored, interpretable visualizations for each interaction type. We empirically validate the framework through controlled simulations and a real-world task, demonstrating its effectiveness for pairwise interactions, with limitations under strong feature correlations and higher-order interactions. SAILS fills a notable gap in the XAI toolbox, going beyond detection of interactions alone to characterizing their functional form.