Xiaomi-TabLDM: A Tabular Foundation Model Technical Report

We introduce Xiaomi-TabLDM, a tabular large data foundation model for classification and regression via in-context learning, which delivers superior prediction accuracy without requiring task-specific fine-tuning. Pretrained exclusively on synthetic data generated from structural causal models (SCMs), our model enables more flexible context utilization and more efficient capacity scaling. i) A new performance standard. Strong regression performance across benchmarks: Xiaomi-TabLDM ranks 1st on OpenML-CTR23 and 2nd on regression across TALENT, TabArena, and BCCO, demonstrating consistently strong regression performance across four complementary benchmark suites. Favorable performance--efficiency trade-off: Xiaomi-TabLDM combines strong predictive performance with substantially lower computational cost. For example, on TabArena regression, it achieves the second-highest Elo while using 82% less training time and 68% less prediction time than the top-ranked TabFM. ii) Large-scale synthetic pretraining. Xiaomi-TabLDM expands the coverage and diversity of synthetic tabular data used for pretraining. We also adopt a three-stage training strategy together with dual-stream feature grouping, lightweight Attention Residual, and sparse Mixture-of-Experts, enabling Xiaomi-TabLDM to learn richer feature interactions and expert specialization across diverse tabular tasks. iii) Test-time scaling. Xiaomi-TabLDM further extends tabular prediction through test-time compute scaling, where allocating additional computation at inference time consistently improves predictive performance over the base model.

Solving In-Table Prediction Problems by Deep Neural Networks with Performance Evaluation Using Synthetic Data

Tabular deep learning (TDL) leverages neural networks (NN) to extract patterns from tabular data. Traditional TDL methods follow a supervised learning paradigm, where a target feature is explicitly given. In this work, however, we explore a different approach by employing deep NNs to learn relationships among individual columns within a given table. We investigate whether NNs can predict the values of arbitrarily selected columns in a given table based on the remaining known columns. We call this problem In-Table Prediction (ITB), which is slightly different from table imputation methods and the pretraining task of TDL. Three potential usage scenarios are identified, which, to our best knowledge, have not been extensively studied in the literature. A self-supervised learning approach is applied to address this problem by randomly selecting columns to be masked out and used as learning targets. This work focuses on tabular datasets containing only continuous features. To handle missing values in continuous features, a novel neural layer is proposed to embed both numerical and empty values. Synthetic data is generated based on predefined column relationships, with empty values inserted using two distinct mechanisms. Additionally, an adapted masking strategy is employed to create test data. Performances of three NN architectures, namely MLP, Resnet and Transformer, are evaluated using the generated synthetic data. We conclude that, the attention-based structure outperforms the other two networks, when a sufficiently large number of training examples is available and a relatively large embedding length is chosen. We stress that these findings are obtained under controlled, synthetic conditions with a small number of columns and it should therefore be regarded as an initial, narrowly-scoped investigation rather than a general characterization of ITP on real-world tabular data.

Minimax bounds for watermarked and masked recursive discrete distribution estimation

Watermarking has been proposed as a way to identify synthetic samples in estimation settings where no metadata is available to distinguish them from real samples, but its precise effects remain unexplored. In the absence of a distinguishing mechanism, it has been shown that adding synthetic samples significantly reduces the marginal efficacy of new real samples. In this work, we study the minimax loss of such recursive discrete distribution estimation in the presence of watermarks in contrast to the unassisted and oracle-assisted losses. When the fraction of real samples vanishes asymptotically, we provide a lower bound that shows that it is impossible to improve performance by adding watermarks unless the false negative rate of detection also vanishes. Additionally, we show that in most regimes, the worst-case losses of a sequence of simple deterministic estimators match the corresponding lower bounds up to constants. Finally, we propose masking, a randomization procedure that narrows the gap in the remaining regimes to a Jensen gap. We conjecture that a tighter lower bound argument can close this gap.

Learning a Size-Weight Frontier for Synthetic-Augmented Inference

Synthetic data can improve statistical inference when real data are scarce, but naively treating synthetic samples as real data can introduce bias and lead to unreliable inference. We develop a general framework for synthetic-augmented inference across a population of related tasks. It characterizes synthetic augmentation by the number of synthetic observations and their weight. Central to our framework is a size-weight frontier that specifies, for each weight, the largest synthetic sample size for which all smaller sizes attain the target task-marginal coverage. We estimate this frontier from historical tasks, and establish a finite-sample coverage guarantee simultaneously for all size-weight configurations on or below the estimated frontier. In experiments using large language model responses to augment opinion survey data, our procedure achieves target coverage and substantially narrows confidence intervals.

Should I Use This Synthetic Dataset for Training? How to Test with Minimal Real Data

Digital twins (DTs) and learned world models are increasingly used to generate synthetic data that augment the scarce real datasets available for training artificial intelligence (AI) models in engineering systems. Owing to the inevitable simulation-to-reality (sim-to-real) gap, however, augmentation may fail to improve the performance of the trained model on the real data distribution. This paper addresses the resulting decision problem: Given a real dataset, a candidate synthetic dataset, and a fixed learning algorithm, decide whether training on the augmented dataset improves the true, population-level performance, while consuming as few real test data points as possible. Two formulations are considered: a direct test on the mean loss difference between the two trained models, and a symmetry-based test on the paired loss difference, which trades a stronger null assumption for faster evidence accumulation. For the latter, we introduce the {adaptive e-process sign-flip test} (aeSFT), a doubly adaptive procedure that adapts both the number of Monte Carlo sign-flip rounds, and hence the computational cost, and the amount of real test data consumed. aeSFT yields anytime-valid Type-I error control, with no need to pre-specify the test-set size. Experiments on a synthetic-data classification task, a DT-aided wireless packet-scheduling task, and a radio-map prediction task show that aeSFT identifies useful synthetic data using substantially fewer real test samples than mean-based sequential testing, matches the power of fixed-sample sign-flip testing and the paired $t$-test, while keeping the false-positive rate below the target level.

Constraint-Aware Synthetic Tabular Data Generation via Inter-Column Constraint Discovery with LLM Agents

Generating structurally valid synthetic tabular data remains difficult: outputs with high statistical fidelity and downstream utility can still violate semantically meaningful domain constraints. We study the discovery and enforcement of three complementary inter-column constraint families---equations, linear inequalities, and logical dependencies. Our unified tool-grounded workflow represents all three as machine-executable hypotheses and applies a common interface for full-table validation, deterministic diagnosis, and counterexample-guided revision. A generator-agnostic postprocessor coordinates family-specific repairs on outputs from unchanged tabular generators. Across curated behavioral audits and end-to-end evaluations, the complete workflow improves held-out violation detection over one-shot direct prompting, while postprocessing yields zero measured violations for every retained, applicable constraint, improves downstream utility on most datasets, and largely preserves univariate marginals.

Epiplexity Guided Data Selection and Generation for Out-of-Distribution Generalization

Modern systems are increasingly expected to transfer across tasks not specified during training. What data facilitates generalization in these new, unanticipated settings? One hypothesis is that data with more structural information could contain shared circuits and subprograms that could be recycled in a wider array of downstream settings. Epiplexity, a recently proposed measure of the structural information a compute-bounded learner can extract from data, provides a mechanism to reason about this relationship. In this paper, we show how to operationalize epiplexity as an online training signal for data selection and synthetic data generation. For selection, we fit scaling laws to the training loss curves of natural data domains to predict the expected epiplexity gain as a function of training tokens, and use this signal to adaptively determine the sampling weights over domains during training. For synthetic data generation, we define a generator's reward as the change in learner epiplexity over a buffer of previously generated data and use REINFORCE policy gradients to guide the generator toward an epiplexity-maximizing distribution. In both cases, higher epiplexity predicts improved downstream performance on zero-shot and fine-tuning based tasks, supporting the hypothesis that data rich in structural information yield representations that transfer across domains.

Benchmarking Time Series Generation Methods for Privacy-Preserving Forecasting

Time series forecasting in privacy-sensitive domains often requires training models on released data rather than original observations. Synthetic time series generation has been developed primarily for data augmentation, where generated series supplement the original training set. How well these methods perform when fully replacing the original data - and how much privacy risk the released series carry - remains underexplored. We address this gap through a benchmark evaluating synthetic generation methods and noise-based anonymization baselines under a Train on Synthetic, Test on Real (TSTR) protocol. We jointly assess forecasting performance and distance-based empirical privacy risk across seven datasets, characterizing the trade-off between these objectives. We also introduce Grasynda-P, a privacy-motivated extension of the graph-based generator Grasynda, incorporating matrix ensembling and kernel density estimation. Our results show that: (1) no generation method fully substitutes for original training data; (2) noise-based anonymization yields the strongest privacy but the worst forecasting performance; (3) simple transformation-based generators outperform deep generative models for forecasting in this setting; and (4) Grasynda-P lies on the Pareto frontier, achieving competitive forecasting with stronger privacy separation than other generators. This benchmark establishes a reference point for evaluating and developing new privacy-aware synthetic time series generation methods.

PluRel-to-RDB-PFN: Schema-Guided Synthetic Relational Pretraining

Relational Foundation Models (RFMs) require large-scale synthetic relational databases for pretraining, but existing approaches tightly couple data generation with the model training pipeline. We study whether PluRel, a general-purpose synthetic relational database generator, can serve as an external data source for RDB-PFN, a relational in-context learner originally pretrained with a 600K-task single-table warm-up followed by an approximately 1.8M-task adaptation stage. We build a conversion pipeline that maps PluRel-generated databases, including externally constructed binary prediction tasks, into the RDB-PFN training format and evaluate three curriculum strategies: SCHEMA-GUIDED FIRST (real-world schema then fully synthetic), FULLY SYNTHETIC (diverse synthetic schemas throughout), and SCHEMA-GUIDED LAST (fully synthetic then real-world schema). Using only approximately 5,500 relational databases (approximately 33K tasks), roughly 55x fewer tasks than the original protocol, and no single-table warm-up, our best curriculum (SCHEMA-GUIDED FIRST) achieves 0.6346 average ROC-AUC across 19 real benchmark tasks at 1024-shot context, recovering 87.6% of the published RDB-PFN performance (0.7245). At 64-shot context, the gap narrows to 93.8% (0.6116 vs. 0.6517). Our results demonstrate that external synthetic generators can provide useful pretraining signals for RFMs when combined with appropriate curriculum design and that exposure to a real-world schema early in training is substantially more effective than late-stage schema adaptation.

Curriculum Matters: Data-Efficient Relational PFN Pretraining with Synthetic Data

Relational Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs) such as RDB-PFN approximate Bayesian inference over multi-table relational databases by pretraining on millions of synthetic tasks. We investigate three intertwined questions about this paradigm. First, can a structurally different synthetic generator PluRel substitute for RDB-PFN's prior? Second, how much does the order in which synthetic data is presented to the PFN affect downstream performance? Third, how much relational reasoning can a PFN acquire from single-table synthetic pretraining alone, before any relational data is introduced? Using PluRel as the sole synthetic data source across all experiments, we find: (i) a progressive single-table curriculum that gradually widens schema complexity from 7 to 17 columns reaches 0.703 average ROC-AUC on the 23-task tabular benchmark using only approximately 13,300 synthetic tables (approximately 45x fewer single-table datasets than RDB-PFN's reported warm-up recipe), while the same data trained all-at-once collapses to 0.541 ROC-AUC; (ii) a relational curriculum trained from scratch on only approximately 5,500 PluRel databases reaches 0.638 average ROC-AUC on the 19-task RelBench/4DBInfer benchmark, recovering 88% of RDB-PFN's reported performance with approximately 220x less relational synthetic data; and (iii) the single-table curriculum model, evaluated directly on the relational benchmark without any relational adaptation, achieves 0.631, nearly matching the dedicated relational pipeline. Together, these findings suggest that curriculum design and synthetic data diversity may matter more for relational PFN pretraining than the specific relational generator or raw synthetic scale alone.

FairDiffuseVQVAE: Sampling-Time Fairness in Tabular Diffusion via Conditional Refinement of Vector-Quantized Latents

Synthetic tabular data is increasingly used in privacy-preserving data sharing, data augmentation, and to mitigate downstream classifier bias. State-of-the-art tabular diffusion models such as TabDDPM and TabSyn achieve excellent distributional fidelity but offer no mechanism for fairness; conversely, fairness-aware tabular generators (DECAF, FairTGAN, FairTabDDPM) impose explicit fairness penalties at training time, yielding modest fairness gains at substantial cost to either sample quality or downstream utility. We introduce FairDiffuseVQVAE, a two-stage architecture that decouples fidelity from fairness: a vector-quantized autoencoder with a row-level discriminator (Stage~1, no fairness terms) is followed by a DiffuseVAE-style continuous diffusion refiner that conditions on both the Stage-1 reconstruction and the protected attribute via classifier-free guidance (Stage~2). Fairness emerges as a property of the sampling distribution -- uniform sampling of the protected attribute at inference time enforces demographic parity by construction, rather than from competing loss terms. On the Adult, Bank and COMPAS datasets, FairDiffuseVQVAE achieves the highest mean Demographic Parity Ratio ($0.702$, $+47\%$ over FairTabDDPM) and Equalized Odds Ratio ($0.686$, $+100\%$). It also attains the lowest mean pair-wise correlation error ($0.034$) of any published method, while explicitly trading $\sim$$15$ AUC points for these fairness gains.

Synthetic minority data is redundant or invalid: a data-dependent validity theory and a de-biased test

For two decades, the standard remedy for class-imbalanced learning has been to fabricate synthetic minority examples, and the standard evidence of their validity has been a check that cannot fail: synthetic points are scored against the very data that generated them. We de-bias the check. Validity becomes a population quantity -- the probability that a synthetic point truly belongs to the minority class -- with a consistent estimator that scores synthetic points against withheld real data. Where held-out ground truth is available, the classical test underestimates true invalidity in 96-99% of method-by-imbalance-ratio cells, while the de-biased estimator tracks it closely. We prove validity is a property of the data, not the method: class overlap sets an invalidity floor no faithful generator escapes, making oversampling redundant where classes separate and invalid where they overlap. Across 91 methods, three classifiers, and datasets spanning medicine and finance -- including a generator engineered to pass the classical check -- none clears both bars: gains over the best trivial baseline are noise-thin (median below 0.01 F1, a decision threshold's reach), and most damage calibration. We release the audit as a pip-installable test and flip the burden of proof: synthetic minority data must now demonstrate, on the data at hand, both validity and information gain.

Measuring the Dependency Gap: Diagnosing Inter-Column Fidelity in Tabular Generative Models

Synthetic tabular data are valued for preserving inter-column dependency, yet each routine fidelity score is a single number that says neither where that dependency is lost nor why. We localize the deficit inside a single score. Equipping a classifier two-sample test (C2ST) with a gradient-boosted discriminator, we decompose it by controlled permutation into marginal, dependency, and numerical-categorical cross components, each read against a fully factorized reference that destroys all dependency while leaving every marginal intact, and against a real-data oracle. The linear detection score in common use rates that same reference as nearly real, a known weakness we replicate on four benchmarks. Applied to a flow-matching (TabbyFlow) and a diffusion (TabDiff) generator, the decomposition exposes a dependency deficit of the same order in both, and we then narrow its source by elimination: it is not a structural limit of the mean-field objective, it is not sampling discretization, and a 16x capacity increase does not close it, while the same measurement responds sharply when capacity is instead cut eightfold, so the plateau is measured rather than a blind spot. Destroying dependency outright collapses minority-class F1 by 0.38-0.61, which bounds what is at stake, though the generators' much smaller residual deficits do not predict their remaining shortfalls. What survives points at the objective: nothing in it scores the joint. Cheap remedies are no substitute: an explicit cross-coupling module and a post-hoc copula both leave the deficit in place.

Seq2Synth: Benchmarking Temporal Fidelity in Synthetic Sequential Tabular Data

Synthetic sequential tabular data are increasingly used for privacy-preserving data sharing and research, yet conventional tabular metrics often overlook temporal structure. Existing single-table and relational evaluation protocols largely collapse records into static distributions, leaving key temporal properties insufficiently evaluated. We introduce Seq2Synth, a unified benchmark for assessing these properties. Its taxonomy characterizes temporal and schema properties to determine applicable evaluations, covering timestamp, cross-sectional, longitudinal, and structural fidelity, alongside trajectory-aware utility and privacy. Across seven core datasets from a 13-dataset benchmark and eight generators, models with near-perfect static fidelity still violate basic temporal constraints, producing duplicate timestamps, irregular intervals, and incomplete observation grids. Moreover, static and temporal-aware rankings diverge substantially, showing that temporal fidelity must be evaluated directly rather than inferred from static or relational scores. Project page and online appendices are available at: https://seq2synth.github.io/.

Trustworthy synthetic data for campaign decision support: strategy simulation fidelity and the PolicySynth framework

Decision support systems (DSS) increasingly run retention what-if analysis on synthetic customer populations, because privacy constraints preclude unrestricted use of real data. Such a system is trustworthy only if the synthetic data lead managers to the same decisions as the real data would; yet prevailing criteria certify distributional similarity, not decision alignment, so a synthetic population can match every marginal distribution while still steering a marketing team toward the wrong campaigns. We close this decision-alignment gap with three contributions: strategy simulation fidelity (SSF), a criterion measuring how often the synthetic population yields the same go/no-go campaign decision as the real population; PolicySynth, a DSS framework whose generator is conditioned on the production churn scorer to align decision-relevant structure; and a three-axis reporting standard of decision alignment, membership-inference resistance, and novel-record rate as the minimum deployment quality gate. On a telecommunications churn corpus and a banking acquisition corpus, PolicySynth attains a mean SSF of 0.923 and 0.960, with seed-to-seed variance roughly ten times tighter than CTGAN on telecommunications and 2.5 times on banking. This stability is the deployable property: go/no-go recommendations shift by at most 1.2 percentage points between monthly retraining cycles, against 11.5 for CTGAN, a reversed recommendation on one campaign in nine. A bootstrap baseline matches PolicySynth on SSF yet copies real records verbatim and fails membership inference, evidence that no single axis suffices. PolicySynth reliably supports directional go/no-go screening; its ROI estimates diverge from real outcomes by 70 to 78% and require the volume correction we document.

RUBRIC: Realism--Utility Balanced Ranking for Imbalanced Classification

Class imbalance poses a fundamental challenge in risk-sensitive applications such as fraud detection and medical diagnosis, where minority-class samples are scarce yet critical for accurate classification. Existing oversampling methods generate synthetic samples to rebalance class distributions; however, they often produce large numbers of low-quality candidates that distort decision boundaries or introduce artifacts, leading to overfitting and degraded generalization. In this work, we introduce RUBRIC, a generator-agnostic filtering framework that formulates synthetic sample selection as a quality-over-quantity optimization problem. RUBRIC ranks candidates using a realism-utility trade-off: realism is quantified by a learned discriminator that distinguishes real samples from synthetic samples, while utility captures proximity to the decision boundary through a concave margin-based scoring function. We show that, under mild regularity conditions, the proposed filtering strategy monotonically tightens the generalization bound for margin-based classifiers by jointly reducing distribution shift and suppressing near-negative tail contributions. Through extensive experiments on credit-card fraud detection and other imbalanced benchmarks, we demonstrate that RUBRIC improves F1-macro and recall while maintaining comparable ROC-AUC across several generators. We also provide explicit lambda-sensitivity analysis to show how users can recover AUPRC when ranking quality is prioritized.

Quantum-Enhanced Synthetic Data Generation Using Quantum Circuit Born Machines for Imbalanced Tabular Learning

Data scarcity and class imbalance are persistent challenges in machine learning that degrade model generalization and introduce predictive bias. We present a hybrid quantum-classical framework for synthetic data generation using a Quantum Circuit Born Machine (QCBM) to address these limitations. The proposed approach exploits quantum mechanical properties -- superposition and entanglement -- within a parameterized variational quantum circuit to model complex probability distributions that are difficult for classical generative methods to capture. Experiments are conducted on two tabular benchmark datasets: the Iris dataset and the Telco Customer Churn dataset. Preprocessing includes normalization and PCA-based dimensionality reduction to enable efficient basis encoding for quantum circuits. The QCBM is trained by minimizing Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between real and generated data distributions using a gradient-based parameter-shift optimization rule. Augmenting training data with QCBM-generated synthetic samples at 40-50% of the minority class improves F1-score by approximately 5-15% and minority-class recall by 10-25%. Cross-domain evaluations (Train on Synthetic, Test on Real; and Train on Real, Test on Synthetic) reveal a performance gap of only 3-10%, indicating strong distributional fidelity. Comparative analysis against classical oversampling methods -- SMOTE, Borderline-SMOTE, KMeansSMOTE, and SVM-SMOTE -- shows that QCBM achieves competitive classification performance and produces lower Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) on the Telco dataset, suggesting superior structural similarity in certain imbalanced settings. These findings establish QCBM as a viable complementary tool for data augmentation, particularly for low-dimensional structured tabular data with class imbalance.

Workload-Preserving Differentially Private Synthetic Data for Causal Inference via Maximum-Entropy Calibration

Workload-based differentially private (DP) synthetic data methods privately measure aggregate queries and post-process the noisy answers into synthetic records. Generic workloads can achieve strong distributional fidelity, but causal estimands such as the average treatment effect (ATE) depend on treatment-arm balance and outcome moments that generic marginals need not preserve. We propose causal workloads: DP query sets designed around the orthogonal moments used by doubly robust causal estimators. The released workload can be used directly by stable moment-map estimators or reconstructed by maximum-entropy calibration into reusable synthetic data; our theory decomposes ATE error into sampling, privacy, workload-approximation, Monte Carlo, and calibration terms. We also introduce Causal-AIM, an adaptive workload selector, and a noise-aware multiple-imputation (NA+MI) procedure for confidence intervals from DP synthetic data. Because the workload is released once, the same DP synthetic table can support ATE, ATT, and subgroup analyses without additional privacy spending. Empirically, causal workloads are most useful at strict privacy budgets and for calibrated uncertainty, while generic workloads often retain an advantage for point RMSE as privacy relaxes. The broader lesson is a tradeoff: distributional fidelity can help point accuracy, but valid causal inference requires preserving causal moments and propagating DP noise rather than treating synthetic rows as real.

TabQueryBench: A Query-Centric Benchmark for Synthetic Tabular Data

Synthetic tabular data support use cases like data sharing, model development under access restrictions, and rapid prototyping of analytical workflows. Modern generative models are evaluated by their statistical similarity, correlation structure, privacy, and downstream machine-learning utility. However, such evaluations leave a gap: they rarely test the structure that matters for analytical queries. We present TabQueryBench, a query-centric benchmark that uses SQL-shaped analytical queries as structural assessors for synthetic data fidelity. It provides an extensible foundation for query-centric synthetic-data evaluation. From 12 public sources of analytical queries, TabQueryBench taxonomizes recurring cross-domain logic into 44 reusable query templates and grounds them to each dataset via a policy-guided template-to-SQL pipeline. This makes queries schema-aware while preserving comparability across generative models. Across 49 datasets and 11 generative models, it activates 10-12 templates per dataset, producing more than 100 executable SQL queries per dataset. Our systematic experiments show five main patterns. First, current tabular generative models can have good distance-based fidelity, but they still fall short on query-centric fidelity: RealTabFormer achieves the highest query-centric fidelity, but it only reaches 0.75 +/- 0.15 (REAL data score is 1.00). Second, tabular generative models struggle with very high-cardinality discrete support. Third, SOTA generative models preserve good global conditional query-centric fidelity, but fail more on local queries. Fourth, tail fidelity deteriorates as queries move toward the extreme tail; even the best model recovers only about 40.7% of real rare values. Finally, there is a fidelity-cost tradeoff in tabular generation: BayesNet offers the strongest tradeoff, with slightly lower query-centric fidelity but much lower generation cost.

TDGT: A Tabular Data Generation Toolkit supporting adaptive GPU-accelerated Bayesian mixture models, diffusion-based models, and latent-space generative modeling

The growing demand for privacy-preserving data sharing has positioned synthetic data generation as a critical component of responsible AI workflows. Despite notable advances in generative modeling, existing solutions often lack integration of adaptive generation strategies, multi-metric evaluation, and accessible end-to-end generators within a unified web-based toolkit. In this work, we introduce TDGT (Tabular Data Generation Toolkit), a web-based toolkit for synthetic tabular data generation and fidelity assessment. TDGT introduces the Adaptive Bayesian Mixture Synthesizer (ABMS), a novel algorithm that autonomously determines the optimal number of mixture components through iterative cluster quality optimization, eliminating the need for manual hyperparameter configuration. Building upon ABMS, we further propose VAE-ABMS, a hybrid architecture that couples Variational Autoencoder-based latent space learning with adaptive Bayesian mixture synthesis, enabling high-fidelity generation of complex, nonlinear tabular distributions. For large-scale scenarios, TDGT provides a GPU-accelerated variant of ABMS leveraging CUDA-based k-means clustering and Gaussian mixture fitting. Synthetic data fidelity is assessed through eleven statistical fidelity metrics spanning distributional divergence, structural correlation, and sample-level similarity, complemented by privacy risk indicators including k-anonymity scoring and disclosure rate estimation. The web-based toolkit supports a real-time streaming interface with interactive Plotly-based visualizations. TDGT is assessed across datasets from healthcare, socioeconomic modeling, and cybersecurity domains, demonstrating consistent generation fidelity and statistical coherence across heterogeneous feature types and data scales.

A Causal DAG Prior for Synthetic Time-Series Classification Datasets

A Prior-data fitted Network learns the posterior predictive induced by its training prior; bringing this paradigm to multivariate time-series classification therefore calls for a synthetic generator that produces complete labelled datasets with temporal structure. We introduce a causal prior that synthesizes each dataset from a randomly sampled DAG over typed nodes across two modalities (tabular attributes and time series), natively producing multivariate, multi-class TSC datasets with cross-modal causal structure across channels, timesteps and labels, a regime not addressed by existing synthetic priors. To validate the prior, we finetune TabPFN v2.5 with minimal adaptations and evaluate on 75 UCR/UEA datasets within TabPFN's operating regime. Finetuning on our generator significantly outperforms both the unmodified upstream model and a tabular-only ablation of the same prior (Wilcoxon signed-rank $p=3.0\times 10^{-8}$ on ROC-AUC), isolating the contribution of the cross-modal temporal structure.

Understanding Latent Flow Models for Tabular Data Synthesis: Targets, Paths, and Sampling

Synthetic tabular data enables microdata sharing in regulated domains, yet deploying continuous-time generative models requires balancing analytical utility, disclosure risk, and computational cost. Latent-space flow models are flexible, but theoretical equivalences across learning targets, probability paths, and sampling dynamics can translate into different behaviour under finite-step integration and explicit compute budgets. We present an empirical study of tabular latent flow models across seven datasets, evaluating velocity, score, noise, and posterior matching objectives under optimal transport (OT) and variance-preserving (VP) paths, ODE and SDE sampling, and varying integration budgets. Our contributions are threefold: (1) we show that the learning target largely determines the utility-risk operating regime, with velocity and posterior matching tending to yield higher utility, while score and noise matching tend to achieve lower disclosure risk; (2) we demonstrate that configuration and sampling choices shift performance, with midpoint often improving distributional fidelity and OT paths often tolerating earlier stopping than VP, enabling compute savings under fixed budgets or risk thresholds; and (3) we distil these findings into actionable defaults and practical configuration guidance to support pre-release model selection under disclosure risk and resource constraints. The code implementation and supplementary materials can be accessed in https://github.com/rulnasution/tabular-latent-flow/.

Critical Percolation as a Synthetic Data Model for Interpretability

Neural networks learn features that reflect the hierarchical, multi-scale structure of natural data. Synthetic datasets used to evaluate interpretability methods typically lack this structure, limiting their value as realistic toy models. To close this gap, we introduce a family of synthetic datasets consisting of hierarchical functions defined on critical mean-field percolation clusters embedded in a high-dimensional data space. The percolation data consists of sparse, low-dimensional fractal clusters with a power-law size distribution. Latent variables modeling a taxonomic hierarchy generate each data point's target value. The data model is analytically tractable with known critical exponents that fix its properties without requiring hyperparameter tuning. We leverage a mapping between percolation clusters, random trees, and additive coalescence to propose an almost linear-time algorithm to jointly sample a random tree and its hierarchical latent decomposition, enabling data generation at arbitrary scale. Using probing experiments, we find that the model's ground-truth latent variables can be linearly decoded from neural network activations. Together, sparsity, self-similarity, power-law statistics, and analytical tractability make critical percolation a principled testbed for interpretability research.

HawkesNest: A Multi-Axis Synthetic Benchmark for Spatiotemporal Pattern Complexity

Evaluation of spatiotemporal point process (STPP) models relies heavily on opaque real-world datasets, where latent generative structure is unknown and model failures are difficult to attribute. We introduce HawkesNest, a generator-aligned benchmark for controlled spatiotemporal pattern complexity built on a multivariate Hawkes backbone. HawkesNest defines four complexity axes: space--time entanglement, background heterogeneity, cross-type interaction, and domain topology. Each axis is associated with a deterministic index computed from the latent data-generating mechanism. By varying these axes while holding global rate, stability, and simulation budget fixed, HawkesNest enables diagnostic stress tests of STPP models under known structural difficulty. We verify that the indices are monotone and nearly orthogonal under controlled sweeps. We illustrate its use by showing that Hawkes-family baselines degrade under joint heterogeneity--entanglement complexity, even though they are structurally aligned with the Hawkes data-generating backbone. We further show that HawkesNest exposes neural-model sensitivity: AutoSTPP remains vulnerable under isolated increases in space--time entanglement. Code. Available at https://github.com/YahyaAalaila/HawkesNest

Not all Jensen-Shannon Divergence Estimators are Equal

The Jensen-Shannon divergence is widely reported as a scalar measure of fidelity for synthetic tabular data. Yet, in practice, it is estimated from finite samples using protocols that are often underspecified. This creates a measurement problem. Although the population divergence is well defined, the empirical value depends on the estimator family, sampling protocol, calibration, dimensionality, and class balance. We show that different protocols can yield non-comparable values: marginal-based estimators ignore dependencies in the joint distribution and can severely underestimate divergence, while classifier-based estimators capture joint structure but exhibit strong estimator dependence. We systematically study this behavior across controlled settings with reference divergences and real-world synthetic tabular benchmarks. Our analysis reveals dependence blindness in marginal estimators, prior-shift bias under class imbalance, and estimator sensitivity in high dimensions. To address prior shift, we derive a closed-form posterior correction for classifier-based Jensen-Shannon estimation. Our results show that empirical Jensen-Shannon divergence values are inherently protocol-dependent, making explicit specification of the estimation procedure necessary for meaningful comparison. We provide practical guidelines and an open-source tool for estimator-aware Jensen-Shannon evaluation.

Valid Inference with Synthetic Data via Task Exchangeability

There is a proliferation of work arguing for the use of synthetic data in scientific research. For example, social scientists are arguing for the use of LLM-generated "silicon samples" in pilot studies; AI evaluations increasingly rely on "LLM-as-a-judge" outputs; and proteomics research is accelerated by generative models that produce synthetic protein structures. These developments raise an intriguing possibility: synthetic data may help researchers ask more questions, run more studies, and accelerate discovery. But they also raise a fundamental concern: synthetic data can be biased, noisy, and misspecified. In this work, we propose statistical principles for using synthetic data in scientific research with provable validity guarantees. The key insight is a new technical condition that we call task exchangeability. Informally, this is a requirement that the researcher can identify historical tasks, for which real data is available, such that their current task of interest is exchangeable with the historical tasks in an appropriate mathematical sense. We develop methods for valid inference under task exchangeability, together with extensions that provide guarantees even beyond exchangeability. We demonstrate the framework on public opinion surveys with silicon samples and AI evaluation with autoraters.

When Sample Selection Bias Precipitates Model Collapse

The proliferation of recursive training on synthetic data can alleviate data scarcity but risks model collapse, where repeated training erodes distributional tails and homogenizes outputs. Data selection is widely viewed as a remedy, yet its reliability depends critically on the reference distribution used by the verifier. We show that in low-resource verification regimes, where each verifier observes only a small, fragmented, and biased slice of the target manifold, selection itself becomes biased. This situation naturally arises in low-resource data silos such as healthcare consortia or proprietary financial institutions, where raw data cannot be pooled and local references are inherently incomplete. As a result, selection preferentially retains samples aligned with the local manifold while pruning globally relevant tail modes, turning from a safeguard against collapse into a mechanism that precipitates it. We theoretically prove that such siloed selection accelerates collapse and induces power-law diversity decay. As an initial mitigation, we construct Wasserstein proxy references from multiple silos without sharing raw data. Empirical results confirm that local-reference selection fails on skewed distributions, whereas collaborative proxy references mitigate diversity degradation, suggesting that recursive synthetic-data pipelines require particular caution when real-data coverage is fragmented or scarce.

ClusBench: The Clustering Benchmark Data Resource You've All Been Waiting For (?)

Although some very common test beds exist for assessing the performance of clustering methods, large scale benchmarking is typically limited to relatively simplistic simulation set-ups. Here we describe the production and curation of close to 3000 synthetic data sets, derived from more than 200 publicly available data sets; the majority of which arose from real-world applications. By fitting a flexible non-parametric distribution to each base data set we are able to retain much of the nuance in real-world data which is difficult to reproduce in standard simulations, while also producing data sets whose sizes are sometimes substantially greater than the data sets from which they are derived. The synthetic data sets, plus an accompanying R package, are available for download from https://github.com/DavidHofmeyr/ClusBench.

Declarative Outcome-Conformant Synthesis: Exact, Closed-Form Specification Satisfaction and a Conformance Benchmark

We study a capability the dominant paradigm in synthetic tabular data does not provide: exact satisfaction of a declared analytical outcome with no source data. Imitation methods (copulas, GANs, diffusion) learn a real distribution and sample from it, and are judged on fidelity to real data. A large, practical class of needs is different: generating data with no source data ("cold start") that reproduces a declared outcome (a revenue curve, a churn rate, a group share) across a relational schema. Off-the-shelf imitation tools offer no interface for such targets, and no sampler can hit an exact aggregate, because sampling has variance. On a real public dataset, off-the-shelf learned synthesizers trained on that very data miss the declared monthly aggregate by 74 to 86 percent; a per-period steelman cuts the miss to about 19 percent and still cannot reach 0; a closed-form generator reaches exactly 0. We name this task outcome-conformant synthesis, argue its evaluation axis is conformance rather than fidelity, and show the two axes are orthogonal. We contribute: (1) a formal account showing a widely-used family of exact-aggregate generators is exactly conditional-sum sampling of a Gamma population (via Lukacs' characterization), with closed-form exactness, a closed-form marginal CV, and scale-invariance; a controlled experiment maps the boundary, enforcing the exact aggregate costs at most 0.006 in 1-Wasserstein distance to an arbitrary external marginal, the rest being shape-family mismatch; (2) SpecBench, to our knowledge the first benchmark to measure conformance to analytical outcomes for cold-start relational synthesis; and (3) a closed-form, deterministic reference system. Exact aggregation alone is trivial; the contribution is conformance jointly with closed-form marginals, integrity, determinism, and zero source data. We concede fidelity to imitation where real data exists.

Differentially Private Synthetic Data via APIs 4: Tabular Data

This paper investigates the problem of generating synthetic tabular data with differential privacy (DP) guarantees, enabling data sharing in sensitive domains. Despite extensive study, state-of-the-art methods often focus on minimizing low-order marginal query errors and overlook the challenges posed by high-order correlations. To address this gap, we extend the Private Evolution (PE) framework, originally developed for DP-compliant image and text synthesis, to tabular data. We introduce Tab-PE -- an algorithm for synthetic tabular data generation under DP constraints. Tab-PE iteratively improves a candidate dataset via an evolutionary process that leverages tabular-specialized operators to produce variations, privately scores them, and selects the highest-quality samples to retain and propagate. In contrast to the original PE, which relies on large foundation models, Tab-PE employs heuristic operators with significantly lower computational costs, making PE more practical and scalable for tabular data. Through extensive experiments on real-world and simulation datasets, we demonstrate that Tab-PE substantially outperforms prior baselines on datasets exhibiting high-order correlations. Compared to the best baseline -- AIM, Tab-PE improves classification accuracy by up to 10% while running 28 times faster.