Pointwise Majorization for sub-Weibull and Mixed Tail Processes with Applications in Quadratic Chaos and Ergodic Diffusions

Classical chaining controls an indexed stochastic process through a single worst-case bound, which can obscure substantial variation across the index set. We establish the first simultaneous pointwise majorization theory for Banach-valued processes with sub-Weibull or two-metric mixed-tail increments. For an anchored sub-Weibull process on a separable index space, write $v(t):=d(t,t_0)$. Given a reference measure $μ$, the envelope at $t$ is governed by the pointwise Fernique-Talagrand functional of order $α$, $Φ_{μ,d}^{(α)}(t):=\int_0^{4v(t)}(\log\frac{1}{μ(B_d(t,r))})^{1/α}dr$. $\forall δ\in(0,1)$, we obtain that $$ \mathbb{P}(\|Z_t\|\lesssim\{Φ_{μ,d}^{(α)}(t)+v(t)(\log(e/δ))^{1/α}\},\forall t)\ge 1-δ. $$ Our bound is determined by the pointwise complexity $Φ_{μ,d}^{(α)}$ rather than a global quantity. The result holds for every $α>0$ and does not involve dyadic logarithmic terms from peeling. For mixed tail processes, with fixed measures $μ_1,μ_2$ and $v_j(t):=d_j(t,t_0)$, $Φ_j(t):=\int_0^{4v_j(t)}(\log\frac{1}{μ_j(B_{d_j}(t,r))})^{1/α_j}dr, j=1,2$, for any $δ\in(0,1)$, we show that $$\mathbb{P}(\|Z_t\|\lesssim\sum_{j=1}^2\{Φ_j(t)+v_j(t)(\log\frac{e}δ)^{1/α_j}\},\forall t)\ge 1-δ.$$ Although the two regimes are coupled in the mixed tail condition, each retains its own pseudo-metric, reference measure, pointwise Fernique-Talagrand functional, and tail exponent. The proof tracks the index-wise costs of measure-generated admissible chains and synchronizes them through a nested common refinement. For applications, we derive matrix-specific bounds for centered quadratic chaos under pseudo-metrics induced by the operator and Frobenius norms, and observable-specific finite-time bounds for diffusion empirical processes.

The Exact Worst-Case Tail Probability under Bounded Kurtosis

We determine exactly what a kurtosis bound buys for one-sided tail control. For the class $\mathcal{C}(κ)$ of real random variables with mean $0$, variance $1$, and fourth moment at most $κ$, the skewness left free, we compute the worst-case tail probability $V_1(t,κ)=\sup_{X\in\mathcal{C}(κ)}\mathbb{P}(X\geq t)$ for every threshold $t>0$ and every $κ\geq 1$. The answer is a four-regime map: a Cantelli tongue $b(κ)\le t\le c(κ)$ on which the two-moment bound $1/(1+t^2)$ remains tight and the kurtosis constraint is worthless; a tail regime $t\geq c(κ)$ with the closed form $V_1=(κ-1)/((t^2-1)^2+κ-1)$; a plateau regime, present only for $κ\le 3/2$, on which the worst case freezes and the value does not depend on $t$; and a central regime described exactly by an explicit algebraic system, provably admitting no closed form in nested square roots. Beyond $c(κ)$ the one-sided and two-sided worst cases coincide: Cantelli's improvement over Chebyshev is annihilated by fourth-moment information. The minimal degree of a sum-of-squares proof of the tight bound is $2$ on the closed tongue and $4$ everywhere else, an exact phase diagram of proof degree. Every closed-form regime carries an explicit dual certificate and an explicit extremal distribution, re-verified on parameter grids by an independent checker in exact arithmetic. The closed forms invert to exact worst-case quantiles, sharpen a median-of-means constant, and give the exact per-direction tail available to degree-4 reasoning under certifiable kurtosis. We found the map through an AI-guided search around the certifying pipeline, LemmaForge, which is validated on classical benchmarks, independently reproduces the symmetric-slice bound of Zelen (1954), and recovers the $2\sqrt{3}-3$ constant of He, Zhang, and Zhang (2010) at $t=0$.

Non-asymptotic Tail Bounds for the Kostlan--Shub--Smale Field: Tensor PCA and Spherical $k$-Spin Complexity

This paper builds a hierarchy of explicit, non-asymptotic tail bounds for the supremum of the Kostlan--Shub--Smale (KSS) random field on the sphere, and applies it to two problems: Spiked Tensor PCA and the landscape of the spherical $k$-spin model. For Tensor PCA, we study the non-asymptotic statistical limits of estimating a rank-$R$ symmetric signal tensor of order~$k\ge 3$ and dimension~$d\ge 3$ from a single Gaussian observation at signal-to-noise ratio~$λ$, through the \emph{profile maximum likelihood estimator}, the MLE restricted to normalized rank-$R$ tensors of coherence at least~$κ$. Our analysis uses a single reduction: a deterministic geometric inequality (the Tube Method) and a rank-reduction step bound the estimation error by the supremum of the canonical KSS field, which the Kac--Rice formula turns into a Gaussian integral against the expected absolute characteristic polynomial of a shifted Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble, controlled in turn by the four explicit tail bounds of our hierarchy (three from a Mehta--Fyodorov representation, one from a Ben Arous--Dembo--Guionnet large deviation). The same reduction yields two results, each with explicit constants. For estimation, a finite-$(k,d)$ error bound recovers the asymptotically optimal rate~$\sqrt{d\log k}$ of Perry, Wein and Bandeira, with explicit dependence on the rank~$R$ and the coherence~$κ$. For the landscape, a two-sided non-asymptotic bracketing of the annealed complexity of the spherical $k$-spin Hamiltonian recovers the Auffinger--Ben Arous--Černý complexity function in the high-dimensional limit.