A computational approach to maximum likelihood thresholds for colored Gaussian graphical models

Gaussian graphical models (GGMs) are essential tools for interpretable structure learning. However, in high-dimensional, small-sample regimes, the available data is often insufficient for the maximum likelihood estimator to exist. Colored Gaussian graphical models (CGGMs) mitigate this limitation by imposing symmetry constraints through graph coloring, which reduces the required sample size. This minimal number of observations needed to guarantee that the estimator exists almost surely is defined as the maximum likelihood threshold (MLT). Here, we address the computation of the MLT for CGGMs by focusing on its geometric formulation: finding the minimum rank of a sample covariance matrix such that its projection lies almost surely within the interior of the cone of sufficient statistics. We establish a unified theoretical framework, extending results from uncolored to colored models and introducing new symbolic algorithms. Furthermore, we present a computational study integrating sampling with topological data analysis (TDA) to investigate the local geometry of the cone of sufficient statistics. Our results demonstrate the potential of TDA to overcome the computational bottlenecks of traditional symbolic algebraic methods, particularly Groebner basis computations, in analyzing the likelihood geometry of CGGMs.

Sierpiński--Knopp Wasserstein Distance for Persistence Diagrams and Applications to 2-Wasserstein Approximation

This paper introduces the Sierpiński-Knopp (SK) Wasserstein distance, a fast metric between persistence diagrams. The SK-Wasserstein distance, denoted $d_{\mathrm{SK}}$, maps diagram points and their diagonal projections to the unit interval via the Sierpiński-Knopp space-filling curve on the upper diagonal triangle. The encoded point sets are then efficiently matched via one-dimensional optimal assignment, in \(O(N\log N)\) steps, yielding an explicit diagonal-aware point assignment between the two input persistence diagrams. We show that the SK-Wasserstein distance controls the classical \(2\)-Wasserstein distance between diagrams, admits an explicit isometric embedding into a Hilbert space, and induces a positive-definite Gaussian kernel, making the resulting geometry directly compatible with Euclidean and kernel-based learning methods. A tighter surrogate dissimilarity, noted \(W_Γ\), is also introduced based on the point assignments along the curve. Experiments on 12 scientific collections comprising 227 diagrams show median per-collection speedup of \(d_{\mathrm{SK}}\) over state-of-the-art approximations of \(W_2\) is \(626\times\), while the aggregate speedup over the full benchmark is \(2100\times\). Average-linkage partitions obtained from \(d_{\mathrm{SK}}\) and \(W_Γ\) each exactly match the corresponding \(W_2\) partition on 8 of the 12 collections. Hilbert \(k\)-means and Gaussian spectral clustering, both based on \(d_{\mathrm{SK}}\), achieve mean adjusted Rand indices (ARI) of \(0.756\) and \(0.800\), respectively, with respect to the benchmark reference partitions, compared to \(0.750\) obtained by average linkage on \(W_2\). The Gaussian \(d_{\mathrm{SK}}\) kernel supports other kernel-based analysis tasks, as illustrated by its use for contiguous segmentation of ordered diagram collections in our experiments.

Measuring Memory and Generalization as Separable Geometric Channels: The Topo^2 Framework

Deep networks trained on noisy labels simultaneously generalize on clean data and memorize flipped labels. These are usually conflated as pressures on one capacity. We present Topo^2, a measurement framework that makes them causally separable, measurable, and law-governed. Persistent-homology H1 structure of the representation space separates into a within-class manifold channel (a function of the training stopping point) and a cross-class channel (a monotone readout of memorized flipped samples). An intervention, the FM0 prescription (zero loss on flipped samples from epoch 0), reaches each setting's generalization ceiling while memorizing essentially nothing. Within the framework we establish a law set with graded evidence: (L2) FM0 separation prescription (9/9); (L1) the within-channel as a training-position function (mid-rise 6/6; convergence-back CIFAR 3/3, SVHN 2/3); (L3) a ring-construction identity (definitional, not a law); and TLS (memory-generalization topological layering): memory is causally additive, anchored (silencing clean collapses the representation), invertible (stripping memory restores near-ceiling generalization), and quantitatively billable (the memorization cost law, effective slope coefficient C ~ 0.38 at the reference capacity: CIFAR-10 0.3801 / SVHN 0.3806 / CIFAR-100 0.384 / VGG 0.3715, capacity-dependent in general and traced to clean-sample feature displacement). We also publish the framework's boundaries: a falsification ledger of nine dead ends, and an instrument-vindication section that excludes six families of global statistics as explanations of the within-channel. The framework turns "memorization" from an ill-defined capacity into a measurable, separable, invertible topological layer.

Persistent Cross Entropy

Persistent entropy is the Shannon entropy of a persistence-based probability measure defined on a persistence diagram. However, its cross-entropy version is not naturally defined because two persistence diagrams generally have different event spaces. To bridge these event spaces, we combine a similarity function with persistence weighting to define an induced probability. The induced probability reflects information from one diagram on the event space of the other diagram and assigns unexplained probability mass to the unexplained event. Using the induced probability, we extend cross entropy to persistence diagrams, called persistent cross entropy (PCE). We establish the main properties of both the induced probability and PCE and prove stability theorems for both. Through three numerical studies, we show that PCE distinguishes diagrams with the same persistent entropy, separates causal directions in dynamical systems without constructing a joint persistent diagram, and can be used as a directional topology loss for knowledge distillation.

Structured Learning on Mapper Representations

Modern machine learning (ML) methods are highly effective for prediction tasks, but many commonly used representations reduce complex data to fixed dimensional embeddings that may suppress multiscale structural organization. The Mapper algorithm from topological data analysis (TDA) provides a different perspective by decomposing data into overlapping local regions connected through a nerve construction, producing a structured representation that captures geometric organization, local statistical behavior, and relational connectivity simultaneously. In this work, we develop a framework for learning over Mapper induced structured representations. Rather than treating Mapper as a preprocessing step that produces a graph for downstream learning, we treat the full Mapper construction as part of the representation itself. We study mathematical properties of these representations, including invariance under relabeling, a distance functional on the space of Mapper representations, structural complexity of multiscale decompositions, and learning oriented stability under representation perturbations. Experiments on time series and graph classification datasets validate the proposed framework through controlled studies of representation ablation, Mapper parameter sensitivity, and the geometry of the induced representation space. Together, these results demonstrate how the proposed mathematical framework enables systematic comparison, interpretation, and analysis of Mapper representations, providing practical tools for studying representation geometry, structural complexity, and learning stability in learning tasks.

Stochastic Dynamics on Persistence Diagram Space via Reinforcement Learning

Persistence diagrams (PDs) provide stable and interpretable summaries of multiscale topological structure. While substantial progress has been made in the statistical analysis of PDs, existing literature often treats diagrams as static objects and provide limited frameworks for probabilistic modeling and stochastic evolution on PD space. We introduce a reinforcement learning framework for stochastic dynamics on PD space, where diagrams evolve through topology aware local edit operations. The dynamics define controlled Markov processes on spaces of finite PDs with variable cardinality. We establish conditions under which the induced Markov chains are irreducible, aperiodic, and geometrically ergodic, implying the existence of unique stationary probability laws on PD space. To guide the dynamics toward scientifically relevant topological targets, we formulate objectives that encompass distribution matching, task specific topological statistics, and structure-preserving compression. The resulting rewards balance task specific distributional targets, diagram fidelity, and complexity reduction, and yield a framework for adaptive topological simplification and probabilistic modeling. Experiments on synthetic and neuroimaging PDs demonstrate that the proposed framework can preserve dominant topological structure while reducing diagram complexity.

Topological Simplification in Predictive Coding Networks

We study the topology of learned representations in predictive coding networks (PCNs), a neuro-inspired bidirectional architecture, using a quantitative layer-wise persistent homology analysis. We train well-performing PCNs on a synthetic classification dataset ($\geq 99.9\%$ test accuracy) and on MNIST ($\geq 95\%$ test accuracy), and measure how topological features change across layers for different architectures and activation functions. We find that smaller PCNs collapse connected components across layers earlier than larger models (Spearman $\unicode{x1D70C} \in [0.72, 0.79]$ across activations), with model size measured as the sum of hidden-layer widths. We also observe a strong negative correlation ($\unicode{x1D70C} = -0.58$) between the depth at which simplification occurs and reconstruction error; i.e., architectures that simplify later reconstruct better. Finally, a seed-level bootstrap comparison across architectures and activations shows that PCNs consistently collapse connected components later than matched MLPs, with an average difference of $3.6$ layers. These results suggest that persistent homology offers a useful quantitative lens on the compression--reconstruction tradeoff in PCNs, and that both model capacity and the recurrent, bidirectional dynamics of predictive coding inference shape when this tradeoff is resolved across layers.

How fine a change can moments see? A scale law for detecting distribution shift, with a kernel calibration rule

Detecting that a stream of high-dimensional embeddings has changed is usually framed as a choice of statistic. We give a scale law that constrains any moment-based choice and test it against topological alternatives. The law: certifying a feature of spatial scale eps carrying mass fraction f requires polynomial tests of degree N* >= log(1/f)/(2 eps), proved via the Chebyshev extremal problem; a Gauss-quadrature construction gives N* >= 4b-1 for a b-scale topology, so cost is set by feature fineness, not feature count. The law is one-sided: we exhibit an annulus whose mean, covariance and all fourth-order moments equal those of a filled disk, yet H_1 is nonzero. Its practical content is a calibration rule. The upper bound is attained by Gaussian test functions, the RKHS witness of an RBF kernel, so the law predicts which bandwidth an MMD test should use: the feature scale. On real embedding streams we measure sigma*/eps with median 1.12 (IQR 1.01-1.52, n=26) over three settings and three scales, and a data-driven bandwidth reaches AUC >= 0.95. Against an adversary optimised against the defender's statistics (mean, covariance, k-NN, kurtosis), only a bandwidth-matched kernel test still detects. For persistent homology the verdict is mixed and depends on choices usually left implicit. The summary matters more than the filtration: total persistence attains recall 0.75 at FPR 1% where the first persistence landscape attains 0.00. What survives is a cost gap, not a power gap: where persistence works it costs 116x kurtosis, which works at least as well. We conclude not that topological summaries are useless, but that on this task a kernel test whose bandwidth the law sets dominates them.

A Mathematical Framework for Topological Causal Data Analysis

Many modern outcomes, including images, point clouds, networks, and spatial fields, are structured objects for which \(Y^1-Y^0\) may be undefined or scientifically inadequate. We introduce \emph{Topological Causal Data Analysis} (TCDA), a framework separating the observation space, causal-model class, topological representation, and causal query. Topology does not define interventions; it supplies stable, shape-sensitive summaries after causal assumptions have been specified. We distinguish outcome-level TCDA, which transforms individual potential outcomes, from distribution-level TCDA, which transforms interventional outcome laws, and characterize when outcome and distribution level contrasts agree. Building on recent outcome-level theory, we formulate identification and doubly robust representations for Banach-space-valued summaries. At the distribution level, we identify targets through the standard causal \(g\)-formula and derive stability-transfer bounds and plug-in consistency. We also place target-specific topological ignorability within the framework, clarifying when a covariate-standardized coarse effect can be identified without identifying the full interventional laws. Finally, we delimit the role of observational topology in causal discovery: it can assist diagnosis on restricted model classes but cannot by itself identify causal structure.

Voronoi Histograms for Adaptive Vectorization of Expected Persistence Diagrams

Persistence Diagram (PD) is known to capture point cloud topology effectively, but its computation has high time complexity. Expected Persistence Diagram (EPD) has been developed to reduce the time cost by studying the topology of multiple subsets of a point cloud and it serves as a distribution of topological features. Existing EPD vectorizations often rely on predefined point transformations, such as Gaussian or landscape functions. We study an alternative discretization based on Voronoi histograms, which trades smooth functional approximation for adaptive partition-based counting. We propose to use Voronoi Diagram-based histogram as the vectorization of EPD, without imposing an explicit smooth point transformation model. Under stated separation and normalization conditions, we establish stability bounds and characterize when the histogram representation preserves Wasserstein-scale variation. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed representation on real-world datasets which have significant topological features for classification and dimensionality reduction tasks.

Topological Data Analysis and Graph-Theoretic Approaches for Tennis Match Prediction

We present two approaches for predicting tennis match outcomes using topological data analysis and graph theory on ATP singles matches from 2000-2025. The first method applies lower-star filtration to player competitive networks, extracting topological features through persistent homology using four summary methods (VAB, HNAV, HWNAV, OW-HNPV) combined with Modified Band Depth analysis. Algorithmic optimizations including ego graph approximations and triangle elimination enable analysis of about 66k matches. Our Random Forest model achieves 66.2% accuracy (AUC = 0.719) using topological, graph-theoretic, and ranking features. Feature importance analysis reveals that rankings contribute 36.3%, centralities 25.5%, and TDA features 24.0%, with topological features providing complementary signal. When rankings are unavailable, the topology-only model maintains 63.56% accuracy, demonstrating that network-derived features alone capture meaningful competitive structure. The second method uses a modified Katz similarity index with temporal edge weighting, achieving 62.48% accuracy on held-out test data. This work represents the first application of lower-star filtration to tennis prediction, provides systematic comparison of four topological summary methods in sports analytics, and demonstrates that TDA can achieve above-chance prediction using network topology alone while providing additional value when combined with traditional features.

Topological Signatures of Context-Level Reliability in TabPFN

TabPFN is a transformer-based foundation model for tabular prediction that performs inference without task-specific training by conditioning on a support set and query inputs. Despite its strong empirical performance, its internal behavior on structurally difficult tabular geometries remains poorly understood. We study this behavior using zigzag persistent homology, treating TabPFN layer representations as evolving point clouds. We construct a controlled benchmark of synthetic tabular tasks with known true probabilities and varied intrinsic topology, including warped circles, tori, spheres, Hopf links, trefoil knots, and Swiss rolls. Across these tasks, we find that the topology of TabPFN's internal representation geometry is strongly associated with dataset-level reliability; for example, the zeroth homology group $H_0$ fragmentation count correlates positively with mean absolute residual across controlled tasks, and this association strengthens in a high-resolution warped circle case study at large sample size. Harder geometries induce a dual topological signature: increased $H_1$ loop activity and increased $H_0$ fragmentation, while the $H_1$ persistence becomes shorter-lived. These descriptors correlate with Bayes error, mean absolute residuals, and overconfidence. Our results suggest that zigzag persistence diagnoses the reliability of the inferred in-context task geometry and provides a context-level view of when TabPFN operates in topologically stressed regimes.

Selecting Interpretable Circular Coordinates from Data

Circular coordinates obtained from persistent cohomology reveal loop structure in data, but they usually remain abstract: A detected circle does not tell us which measured angle, phase, torsion, or decoder explains it. We propose a method for selecting interpretable circle-valued coordinates from a user-supplied dictionary of scientifically meaningful candidates explaining the detected cohomology. In the continuous setting, each candidate is represented by the cohomology class of its pulled-back angular form, and selecting a minimum-energy set of candidates spanning the relevant $H^1$ subspace becomes a minimum-weight basis problem in a vector matroid. We then introduce CIRCOL, a method for discrete point clouds sampled from the manifold. We prove that the introduced cochain inner product is a consistent estimator of the $L^2$ inner product of fixed smooth 1-forms under non-uniform sampling. The resulting projection matrix both helps selecting a basis of low-energy dictionary coordinates and diagnoses topologically trivial candidates or unexplained persistent classes. Finally, we verify the effectiveness of our method on synthetic examples, on molecular simulations, and neural recordings of head-direction cells.

TopoCast: A Topological Fidelity Framework for Evaluating Transformer-Based Time Series Forecasting

Deep learning-based models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in Time Series Forecasting (TSF), yet their evaluation remains dominated by pointwise error metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE), which quantify numerical accuracy but overlook structural properties of the forecast signal, including recurrent dynamics, oscillatory behavior, and phase alignment. As a result, forecasts exhibiting over-smoothing, phase shifts, or frequency distortions may achieve favorable error scores despite substantial structural degradation. To address this limitation, we propose TopoCast, a topology-driven framework for evaluating structural fidelity in TSF. TopoCast reconstructs phase-space representations of forecast and ground-truth sequences using Takens delay embedding and applies persistent homology to characterize their intrinsic dynamics. We derive four complementary topological fidelity measures from persistence diagrams and aggregate them into a Topological Fidelity Score (TFS). We further introduce dominant cycle overlap, a novel metric that maps persistent topological features to the temporal domain to assess whether dominant oscillatory patterns occur at the correct time points. Combined with TFS, this yields the Localized Topological Fidelity Score (LTFS), a phase-aware measure that captures temporal localization errors invisible to existing evaluation metrics. Experiments on five Transformer architectures across three real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that models with similar forecasting errors can exhibit markedly different structural fidelity profiles, revealing failure modes overlooked by conventional evaluation and highlighting the value of topology-aware forecast assessment.

PHINN: Persistent Homology Inspired Neural Network for Rare-Event Time Series Generation

Rare events in time series are critical to model but hard to learn due to data scarcity. Current generative models struggle with extreme values. We observe that rare events leave distinct topological fingerprints - transitions in Betti numbers from point-cloud embeddings - that are more stable and discriminative than statistical moments. We introduce PHINN, a flow-matching framework using dynamic Betti curves as conditioning signals and a persistence landscape loss for homology consistency. It scales to multivariate data, includes a natural-language interface to set Betti targets, supports cross-domain meta-learning and few-shot generation, and provides certified adversarial robustness. On financial, epidemiological, and multi-modal benchmarks, PHINN outperforms statistical and diffusion baselines in topological fidelity (beta-RMSE down 41-63%, transition accuracy up 84%) and matches jump-diffusion models in tail coverage while exceeding them in shape fidelity. All results have 95% confidence intervals.

From Persistence to Survival: Hypothesis Testing, Effect Sizes and Vectorisation for Topological Features

Persistence diagrams are common representations in topological data analysis, but they do not naturally live in a vector space, and the statistical tools developed for comparing them have largely evolved separately from those used for downstream prediction. We introduce STRAND (Survival Topological Representation ANalysis of Diagrams), which treats (collections of) PDs as survival data: each topological feature with persistence value $p = d - b$ is a fully observed time-to-event, and the persistence survival function $S(t) = \mathbb{P}(p > t)$ is the central object for comparing diagrams. From this single representation we derive (i) a non-parametric two-sample test with calibrated Type I error and high power from a small number of diagrams; (ii) interpretable effect sizes; and (iii) a 1-Wasserstein-stable feature vector for downstream machine learning. We validate calibration and power on synthetic manifolds with controlled topology, demonstrate competitive vectorisation across 14 graph and 3D point cloud benchmarks, and apply the method to study functional brain connectivity in fMRI/neuroscience data. To our knowledge, STRAND is the first method to provide hypothesis testing and vectorisation for persistence diagrams from a single coherent and interpretable representation.

Learning Coherent Representations: A Topological Approach to Interpretability

Deep neural networks learn representations where individual features often lack interpretable meaning; a single neuron may activate for scattered, unrelated inputs. We introduce coherence, a geometric property inspired by neural coding in the brain, where neurons like grid cells and head direction cells respond to contiguous regions of state space. A non-negative matrix is coherent if each row (sample) attends to geometrically clustered columns (features) and vice versa, and in addition every sample is well described by some feature and every feature is needed by some sample. We prove that coherent matrices induce a bounded interleaving between the Vietoris-Rips filtrations of samples and features, guaranteeing that both spaces share compatible topological structure. This geometric constraint facilitates interpretability. For example, if data lies on a circle, coherent features must tile that circle into contiguous arcs. We introduce Coh, a differentiable objective function based on Fréchet variance that enforces coherence during training. Unlike sparsity, which bounds how many samples a feature activates on, coherence bounds which samples, requiring geometric connectivity rather than only rarity. This yields not just interpretable features but an interpretable feature space. We validate Coh in an auto-encoder using synthetic and rotated MNIST datasets and in a token embedding of BERT using language data.