The Intruder Threshold: A Spectral Law for LoRA Fine-Tuning

LoRA fine-tuning can create intruder dimensions: new leading singular vectors of the updated weight matrix $W+BA$ that are nearly orthogonal to all pretrained singular vectors and that drive catastrophic forgetting. Since their discovery, no theory has predicted, layer by layer on measured spectra, when they appear. We derive a per-layer critical update strength $s^\ast=\barθ/(γσ_1(BA))$, computed from the measured spectrum of $W$ alone through the rectangular spiked-deformation transform, together with an exact secular-equation characterization of the updated spectrum, with no fitted parameters. In a pre-specified study spanning four dense Transformer families, a state-space model, a mixture-of-experts model, and an encoder-decoder (18 adapters, 9{,}840 layer scans), the law localizes the empirical threshold within a factor of two on $82\%$ of layers, separates intruder-bearing from intruder-free layers at deployment with a mean AUC of $0.89$, holds unchanged on six third-party adapters, and predicts where WikiText-2 perplexity begins to degrade; a combination of the two pre-specified edge evaluations reaches $98\%$ and is confirmed out-of-bag on the external adapters ($0.997$). Full fine-tuning disperses its update far below the threshold of every layer, which resolves the asymmetry between LoRA and full fine-tuning. Norm-matched interventions confirm that threshold-crossing layers, rather than update magnitude, carry the forgetting, and a spike-budget rule derived from the thresholds, requiring one SVD and no validation sweeps, reduces forgetting by $62\%$ on the most fragile model at no task cost.

A Risk Decomposition Framework for Pre-Hoc Fine-Tuning Prediction

The high cost of fine-tuning LLMs poses a significant economic barrier; pre-hoc performance prediction offers a critical solution to substantially reduce this expense. However, the theoretical limits of pre-hoc performance prediction remain unexplored. We formulate it as a stochastic estimation problem under information constraints, decomposing prediction risk into two components: an intrinsic limit (static data-model compatibility) and a reducible optimization variance. We prove that optimization variance admits a necessary lower bound on its decay rate, implying fundamental constraints on how quickly uncertainty dissipates, regardless of the predictor used. Based on these dynamics, we derive a budget-optimal probing principle and introduce a predictability phase diagram that organizes tasks into three distinct regimes: Static-Sufficient, Dynamic-Critical, and Noise-Dominant. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world benchmarks validate these theoretical regimes and demonstrate the efficiency of our probing strategy.

High-Dimensional Theory of LoRA Fine-Tuning in a Solvable Attention Model

We develop a high-dimensional statistical theory of low-rank adaptation (LoRA) in attention models, capturing the interplay between pre-training and fine-tuning. We introduce a solvable framework in which a single-head attention layer is first pre-trained on a data-abundant task and subsequently adapted via a rank-one LoRA update on limited data. In the high-dimensional limit, both stages admit a sharp asymptotic characterization in terms of a finite set of order parameters, yielding explicit predictions for test errors and representation alignment. Our analysis shows that the impact of pre-training on LoRA is summarized by an effective noise term, from which we derive prescriptions for the optimal pre-training procedure. We also demonstrate a regime with a mismatch between the value of the test error and representation quality, and propose an application of our theory to active fine-tuning.