Jonaid Shianifar, Blaz Mramor, Fangda Zou +5cs.AI cs.LG
Real-time bidding (RTB) ad exchanges typically forward nearly all incoming requests to demand-side platforms (DSPs), even though only a small fraction receive bids. This over-distribution weakens auction outcomes: DSPs throttle participation under compute and budget constraints, reducing the effective use of limited bidding capacity. We present a competition-aware request dispatch framework that uses distributional bid prediction and probabilistic forwarding to decide whether each request should be sent to each DSP. The system adapts per-DSP thresholds over time through lightweight policy optimization to track non-stationary market conditions. We evaluate the framework through four sequential online experiments on a production platform serving over 20 billion daily requests. A full multi-DSP deployment reduces DSP request volume under the policy by 34.2% while increasing net revenue by 4.6% (p<0.001) in a recent 14-day window after an initial DSP adaptation period. Further analysis highlights strong heterogeneity across traffic segments and reveals that aggregate metrics can be misleading. Segment-level and per-DSP analyses suggest that the policy surfaces comparative advantages among DSPs, improving monetized outcomes without increasing overall request volume.
Long-horizon conversion prediction under delayed feedback creates a two-clock, two-window learning problem in online advertising. A short base observation window releases recent clicks on the click clock before their outcomes mature, whereas conversions continue to arrive on the conversion clock throughout a longer target conversion window. The click clock provides timely but partially observed status supervision. The conversion clock reveals long-tail delays, but the delay composition within an arrival-time slice is weighted by historical click cohorts with different traffic volumes and target-window conversion rates. We present TWICE, a framework that factorizes long-horizon post-click conversion rate (CVR) into a target-window conversion probability and a grouped elapsed-delay cumulative distribution function (CDF). The two clocks provide complementary supervision. Click-clock records train the target-window CVR head through a current-status likelihood over the base observation window. Newly arrived conversions train the delay model on the conversion clock. To account for the cohort mixture, TWICE uses fixed click-time predicted CVR (pCVR) mass as cohort exposure in an arrival-conditioned likelihood. This accounts for differences in cohort traffic and conversion propensity. The resulting aggregate records are self-contained. A single learned CDF produces monotone predictions for all requested horizons up to the target conversion window. Serving requires neither historical lookup nor convolution. Experiments on a public benchmark and an industrial advertising dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of TWICE. In an online A/B test in Kwai's advertising system, TWICE increased expected revenue, revenue, and conversions by 2.486%, 1.858%, and 2.061%, respectively. It was subsequently deployed to full traffic.
Auto-bidding systems optimize bids to maximize value under efficiency constraints such as Cost-Per-Action (CPA). Existing methods treat each day as an independent episode. However, many advertisers produce value so sparsely that per-day efficiency ratios become statistically unreliable, undermining advertiser retention. Platforms therefore evaluate window-level efficiency over sliding windows of $W{=}7$ days, ensuring fair evaluation and long-term advertising effectiveness. This creates cross-episode coupling: each day's bidding decisions affect up to $W$ overlapping windows, so setting daily targets requires anticipating future market conditions. We propose SWAG-Bid (Sliding-Window Aware Generative Auto-Bidding), a hierarchical framework decomposing this challenge into episode-level planning and step-level execution. The planner uses a Masked Trajectory Model to forecast markets and generate candidate plans, scored across all overlapping windows by Multi-Window Model Predictive Control Sampling (MWMS) with exponential confidence decay. The controller adjusts reliance on this guidance through a state-adaptive gate, Per-Step Gated Adaptive Layer Normalization (PSG-AdaLN), complemented by Return-to-Go and Cost-to-Go channels carrying budget and constraint information. Experiments on AuctionNet-Sparse and online A/B tests on AliExpress show that SWAG-Bid achieves competitive constraint satisfaction and value acquisition under sliding-window evaluation.
Auto-bidding plays an essential role in online advertising, automatically adjusting bids for advertisers to optimize their commercial goals. The emerging AI-Generated Bidding (AIGB) paradigm widely adopts generative modeling to optimize bidding strategies, yet suffers from the limited mode coverage of offline datasets and inadequate task-state understanding, hindering effective exploration of optimal strategies. Large Language Models (LLMs), with prior world knowledge and reasoning capabilities, offer a promising approach to overcome these limitations. However, directly applying LLMs to auto-bidding tasks faces inherent challenges in limited numerical precision, hallucinations, and inference latency. To address these limitations, we propose AIGB-R1, a hierarchical self-evolving auto-bidding framework aiming to enhance AI-Generated Bidding via LLMs' Reasoning capabilities, comprising a high-level Planner module for macro-level strategy planning and a low-level Executor module for fine-grained decision-making. Building upon this, we design an experience-driven self-evolving loop, enabling autonomous strategy exploration and optimization from accumulated experience. We adopt a two-stage pipeline of offline pre-training and post-training alignment, and build an interactive bidding simulation environment for strategy rollout. Furthermore, we propose Decoupled Group Relative Policy Optimization (D-GRPO) to achieve end-to-end optimization via advantage decoupling. Experimental results on a large-scale public dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of AIGB-R1.
Online advertising bidding systems typically deploy multiple offline-trained expert models (e.g., PID controllers, model predictive control, offline RL policies) but face two critical limitations: lack of online adaptability to non-stationary auction markets, and reliance on costly manual tuning of hyperparameters such as bid bounds and budget pacing constraints. We propose HOBA (Hierarchical On-policy Bidding Agents), a hierarchical reinforcement learning framework that decouples strategic reasoning, model selection, and bid execution across three time scales. At the high level, a large language model infers hyperparameters from contextual signals through a Think-Act-Observe-Reflect loop with historical experience retrieval. At the mid level, a SARSA agent dynamically selects among expert models, incorporating causal adjustment to eliminate selection bias. At the low level, a dynamic expert pool (PID, MPC, IQL, Decision Transformer) executes bids under high-level constraints. This design confines online learning to discrete expert selection rather than continuous bid optimization, significantly reducing exploration risk while maintaining adaptability. Experiments on the AuctionNet benchmark and a large-scale A/B test demonstrate consistent improvements over state-of-the-art baselines. In a large-scale online deployment, HOBA delivered substantial business value, achieving a +3.6\% increase in target cost, proving the effectiveness of our hierarchical multi-agent bidding paradigm.
Tianxing Bu, Zhaoqi Zhang, Linyou Cai +7cs.GT cs.AI cs.LG
In modern online advertising platforms, Guaranteed Delivery (GD) contracts coexist and bid with Real-Time Bidding (RTB) auctions. Recent approaches either decouple GD and RTB optimization or rely on heuristic priority rules, and thus fail to effectively balance short-term revenue maximization with long-term contract delivery under complex multi-slot delivery and impression constraints. To address these challenges, we propose HMAF (Hierarchical Multi-Slot Allocation Framework), a unified framework designed to optimize impression allocation in GD--RTB advertising platforms. HMAF employs the Plan--Calibrate--Execute paradigm as its core structure, and integrates offline constraint optimization with online decision-making, balancing offline GD resource planning, dynamically calibrating GD--RTB competitiveness, and making real-time listwise rank decisions across multi-slot environments. HMAF has been implemented in multiple marketing scenarios at Meituan, one of the world's largest online food delivery platforms, leading to a 3.72% increase in GD delivery rate and a 1.59% increase in total advertisement revenue.