Weiliang Huang, Huanrong Liu, Bob Zhang +5cs.CV cs.RO
Reliable surgical planning requires models to anticipate not only how instruments will move, but also how the operative visual state will evolve together with such motion. Existing approaches typically treat future scene generation and instrument trajectory prediction as two separate tasks. Scene-only models cannot directly evaluate the accuracy of future instrument motion at the trajectory level, while trajectory-only models fail to capture the visual consequences of instrument movement, leaving the consistency between predicted trajectories and future scene evolution unaddressed. Jointly forecasting both provides a more complete account of surgical action-scene dynamics by enabling explicit trajectory-level evaluation while simultaneously modeling the corresponding visual evolution. To bridge this gap, we present a preliminary joint visual-trajectory world-action model that simultaneously forecasts future visual states and instrument trajectories from historical surgical observations. Specifically, we encode historical video frames and tool trajectories into latent representations, which are processed by a temporal-spatial encoder and subsequently decoded through separate visual-state and trajectory prediction heads. Based on this preliminary architecture, a chunked autoregressive rollout is repeatedly applied to predict fifteen future steps. The chunked strategy consistently outperforms direct one-shot prediction across all evaluated horizons, improving first-segment PSNR from 18.86 to 23.11 dB and reducing ADE from 45.77 to 22.22 pixels. These results demonstrate the initial feasibility of joint visual-motion forecasting. However, we observe progressive visual degradation and accumulated trajectory errors over longer prediction horizons, which remain important challenges for future surgical world-action modeling.
Autonomous driving systems must operate under partial observability, where safety-critical objects may be occluded or visible only to neighboring connected vehicles. Vehicle-to-vehicle cooperation can reduce this uncertainty, but existing cooperative driving methods often compress multi-agent evidence into latent features or hidden multimodal states. As a result, they obscure which agent observed each object, whether the object is visible to the ego vehicle, and how conflicting evidence affects downstream decisions. We propose G-MARK, a grounded multi-agent reasoning framework that converts cooperative object-centric observations into explicit provenance-aware knowledge graphs (KGs). The resulting KGs preserve object hypotheses together with their source attribution, ego-versus-partner visibility, uncertainty, conflicts, spatial relations, and planning-relevant context. G-MARK then derives a shared feature representation from these KGs, enabling lightweight task heads to support object reasoning, motion prediction, control selection, and trajectory forecasting. Compared with the state-of-the-art baseline, GMARK improves occlusion reasoning accuracy by 42.2%, reduces control-selection error by 13.1%, and achieves comparable trajectory-planning accuracy with a 25.6x smaller structured communication payload. Our code is available at https://github.com/bhavyagupta98/g-mark.
Markus Knoche, Daan de Geus, Bastian Leibecs.CV cs.RO
Accurate trajectory forecasting of surrounding traffic participants is a core capability for autonomous driving, enabling vehicles to anticipate behavior and plan safe maneuvers. We observe that current state-of-the-art forecasting models on Argoverse 2 and the Waymo Open Motion Dataset tailor their training objectives to the different benchmark metrics. Because these metrics encourage conflicting behavior, we propose a paradigm change for trajectory forecasting: training models with metric-agnostic probabilistic objectives and treating metric optimization as a downstream task applied to the predictive distribution. Concretely, we introduce Trajectory Distribution Evaluation (TraDiE) policies, metric-specific policies that map a predictive distribution to the set of $K$ trajectories and confidences required by trajectory forecasting metrics. We evaluate this framework by introducing DONUT-NLL, which adapts the training objective of the state-of-the-art trajectory forecasting model DONUT to directly optimize the predictive distribution. Using our policies, DONUT-NLL achieves state-of-the-art results on all metrics of the Waymo motion prediction benchmark.
Qiyuan Wu, Katie Z Luo, Bharath Hariharan +2cs.LG cs.CV cs.RO
Trajectory forecasting for autonomous driving has advanced rapidly, yet representative models often produce uninformative posteriors over forecast modes, causing problems for mode pruning. We trace this to a modeling-training mismatch: forecasters are typically modeled as conditional Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) but trained with a winner-take-all (WTA) loss that assigns each sample to its nearest mode. We argue that this K-means-like hard assignment (one-hot), while preventing mode collapse, is the source of uninformative mode probabilities: it over-segments the trajectory space, ignores relatedness among nearby modes, and yields assignment instability under small perturbations. Guided by this lens, we introduce two post-hoc treatments: (1) test-time posterior-weighted merging that aggregates nearby candidate trajectories; and (2) a one-step expectation-maximization (EM) update that replaces hard labels with soft responsibilities, sharing probability mass across neighboring modes. Across several WTA-trained architectures, these lightweight steps produce more informative, faithfully ranked mode posteriors and strengthen final forecasts on popular displacement metrics -- without retraining. Our analysis unifies recent design choices through a GMM-vs-K-means perspective and offers principled, practical corrections that better align training objectives with inference.