Directional Influence Function: Estimating Training Data Influence in Constrained Learning

As constrained learning becomes increasingly common, models are trained under explicit feasibility requirements to enforce fairness, safety, robustness, regulariza- tion, and physics or logic constraints. Understanding how training samples in- fluence the model solution (e.g., learned parameters) is crucial for interpretability and robustness. The classical influence function (IF) estimates sample contribu- tions via local sensitivity analysis, measuring how the solution changes when a specific training sample is perturbed or removed. However, IF becomes unreli- able in constrained settings: data perturbations can reshape both the objective and the feasible region, leading to estimates that violate feasibility. In response, we propose the Directional Influence Function (DIF), a novel estimator that explicitly incorporates these constraints into influence estimation. DIF formulates the opti- mality conditions of constrained learning as a variational inequality (VI) and ana- lyzes how perturbing training data affects this VI. We validate DIF on constrained linear regression and demonstrate that it recovers leave-one-out retraining results, whereas IF and penalty-based IF exhibit significant bias. We further apply DIF to fairness-constrained CNNs, where DIF accurately predicts test loss changes under data removal and aligns closely with actual retraining. Our results establish DIF as an efficient and reliable tool for data attribution in constrained learning.

Beyond the Training Distribution: Evaluating Predictions Under Distribution Shift and Selection Bias

Understanding how a prediction model will perform in a new environment before deployment is essential to preventing harm when algorithms inform decision-making. Two common sources of model performance degradation are (i) covariate shift, where the target covariate distribution differs from the source, and (ii) selective labels, where the observability of outcomes depends on historical decisions. We study pre-deployment model evaluation under the joint presence of covariate shift and labeling of outcomes selectively based on observed features. In particular, we present a double machine learning procedure for estimating the target risk of an arbitrary black-box prediction model under a general loss function. We show identification of this estimand under standard assumptions and derive a bias-corrected estimator based on the influence function of the target risk. Finally, we evaluate our estimator through experiments using the eICU electronic health records database, showing that it tracks the true target risk more accurately than methods that address either selective labels or covariate shift alone, as well as baselines that combine standard plug-in approaches.