Informative Label Missingness in Multiclass Classification Information Geometry and Excess Risk

Informative label missingness can change the usual efficiency ordering between completely and partially labelled classifiers because the pattern of missing labels may itself carry information about the classification model. We develop a general likelihood-based theory for this phenomenon in parametric multiclass classification. An efficient-information decomposition separates information lost through unavailable class memberships from information contributed by the missing-label mechanism. We then derive a quadratic expansion of plug-in excess risk over the active pairwise faces of the multiclass Bayes boundary, showing that classification efficiency depends on how information gains and losses align with directions that perturb the decision boundary. This yields a classification-weighted generalized-eigenvalue criterion under which informative partial classification may have smaller asymptotic classification risk without globally dominating complete classification in Fisher information. Near missing completely at random, with the marginal missing-label proportion fixed, redistribution of missing labels changes lost class-label information at first order, whereas efficient information from the missingness pattern appears only at second order. Three-class quadratic discriminant calculations, finite-sample experiments, and a semi-synthetic multiclass application illustrate the resulting regime-dependent behaviour.

The information geometry of product-reference discrete diffusion: Interaction growth complexity and optimal scheduling

We study a class of product-reference diffusion algorithms for sampling from a discrete distribution. We show that their sampling performance can be characterized using a path-based measure of data geometry that we call the interaction growth complexity (IGC). We show that a bivariate IGC kernel gives an exact representation of both the KL discretization error and a simple one-step upper bound. The simpler univariate IGC density can be used to study the effect of stepsize choices on the iteration complexity required to obtain $ε$-accurate samples in KL divergence. Samplers that traverse the path with equi-spaced steps in log-squared-reliability-odds have performance that depends on the aggregate IGC mass, whereas refined choices of stepsizes have a lower complexity depending on a square-root functional. In the fine-grid limit, both of these characterizations become sharp. We also allow general product reference distributions and show that the reference law can substantially reshape the IGC profile and the resulting sampling complexity; in particular, references far from both the uniform and the data marginals can yield dimension-dependent improvements. Finally, the aggregate IGC mass admits bounds in terms of total correlation and dual total correlation, thereby connecting the pathwise geometry to classical measures of multivariate dependence.

Information Geometry of Message Passing

We show that the natural-gradient stationary condition of variational inference has an edge-local form on a Forney-style factor graph. We start from the Bethe free energy and constrain a selected edge marginal to an exponential family. At a stationary point, the natural parameter of that edge equals the sum of two projected messages, one from each incident factor. Each projected message is the natural-gradient projection of the exact belief-propagation log-message at the current receiving marginal, or equivalently, the gradient of its expectation in the so-called mean coordinates. We call the resulting scheme natural-gradient message passing (NGMP). The rule is local; each edge may carry its own exponential family, and the message a factor sends depends on the marginal that receives it. Compared with variational message passing, NGMP keeps the part of the exact message that the receiving family can represent instead of averaging the factor under the neighboring beliefs. The two coincide when the uncertainty on the edges entering a non-conjugate factor vanishes, and NGMP is more accurate when that uncertainty persists, for example, along a partially observed latent chain or when parameters are filtered through successive data batches. Experiments on Poisson smoothing, heteroskedastic regression, and hourly ETTh forecasting confirm this and show that the gain appears mainly in uncertainty calibration.

Perspectives on Tsallis Statistics for Artificial Intelligence

Tsallis statistics generalizes Boltzmann-Gibbs statistical mechanics through a single real parameter $q$ that controls the weight assigned to rare and frequent events. Originally proposed to describe physical systems with long-range correlations, multifractal geometry, and heavy-tailed fluctuations, the framework has become a recurring ingredient in modern artificial intelligence (AI): it underlies sparse attention mechanisms (\textsc{sparsemax} and $α$-\textsc{entmax}), maximum-entropy reinforcement learning with controllable exploration, robust and heavy-tailed probabilistic models, and a family of generalized loss functions and regularizers. This paper offers a structured perspective on where Tsallis statistics meets AI. We first review the mathematical core: $q$-entropy and its variational (maximum-entropy) foundation, the $q$-exponential and $q$-logarithm, the $q$-central limit theorem, $q$-Gaussian distributions, and their dynamical origin in superstatistics, emphasizing the properties that matter for machine learning. We then survey applications across softmax generalization, reinforcement learning, sequential and graph neural models, generative and probabilistic modeling, loss design, and optimization, extracting the recurring design pattern in each case: a tunable interpolation between dense/uniform and sparse/peaked behavior governed by $q$. We further argue that the heavy-tailed weight spectra and gradient-noise statistics empirically observed in deep networks are themselves nonextensive signatures, placing modern learning dynamics within the scope of $q$-statistics. Finally, we discuss methodological pitfalls, the relationship to information geometry and $q$-exponential families, and open directions, arguing that $q$ should be treated as a learnable inductive bias rather than a fixed hyperparameter.

CuBAS: Information Geometric Curvature-Based Adaptive Sampling for Supervised Classification

The informativeness of a training set is as consequential as its size, yet most sampling strategies remain agnostic to the intrinsic geometry of the data distribution. We introduce CuBAS (Curvature-Based Adaptive Sampling), an information-geometric framework for adaptive data selection in supervised classification, grounded in the q-state Potts Markov random field (MRF) model. The central insight is that a labeled dataset can be viewed as a statistical manifold, on which local curvature, estimated via the ratio of second to first-order observed Fisher information, faithfully encodes the geometric complexity of the data distribution. We construct a k-nearest-neighbor graph over the labeled data and derive a closed-form curvature score at each vertex from the Potts sufficient statistics. This curvature signal partitions the graph into two complementary regimes: low-curvature regions, corresponding to smooth, homogeneous clusters, and high-curvature regions, concentrated around decision boundaries that are disproportionately informative for classification. By selecting nodes from both regimes, CuBAS constructs compact yet maximally informative training subsets. Empirical evaluation across more than 60 benchmark datasets demonstrates consistent and statistically significant improvements over random sampling and uncertainty-based baselines, across a wide range of labeling budgets and classifier architectures. CuBAS is computationally efficient (linear in the number of k-NN graph edges), theoretically grounded in the differential geometry of statistical manifolds, and interpretable in terms of the local shape operator of the data manifold.